India Meteorological Department has said that the Southwest monsoon this year would see a delayed onset over Kerala and hit the southern state only on June 5. Normally, the onset date over Kerala is June 1. However, since 2015, the monsoon has not made a timely arrival. Monsoon onsets during 2015, 2016 and 2019 took place sometime in the first week of June.
In its first Long Range Forecast (LRF) issued last month, the Met department had forecast a normal monsoon during the June to September season. A revised calendar comprising monsoon onset and withdrawal dates over various parts of the country was also announced. These revised dates would be effective starting this season. However, onset over Kerala was retained as June 1.
Presently, there lay a well marked low pressure system over Southeast Bay of Bengal. This system is likely to intensify into a depression and turn to a cyclonic storm by May 18. However, conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon advance into the South Andaman Sea. The islands will experience associated rainfall during May 16 – May 18.
” Due to the likely formation of cyclone over the Andaman Sea in the upcoming 48 hours, the monsoon onset will be delayed over Kerala. This because the cyclone would be drawing up all energy from the monsoon winds thereby slowing down its advance into the mainland,” D Sivanand Pai, head, Climate Research and Services (CRS) at IMD, Pune told The Indian Express.
However, due to the cyclone the monsoon arrival over the Andamans will be realised early on, he added.
As per this revision, the Southwest monsoon’s progress along the Andaman Sea is scheduled by May 22.