‘Can only manage violence’: Manipur crisis takes a turn, Delhi stuck in more difficult terrain

The clashes have been reported across Ukhrul, Kamjong, Senapati and Kangpokpi districts, with the geographical proximity of the two communities meaning the conflict is playing out over roads and highways.

Consequently, security agencies must deal not only with gunfights and killings but also the disruption of supplies and movement.

How the violence spread

Not long after the Yumnam Khemchand Singh-led BJP government came to power in Manipur, after a stint of President’s Rule, tensions flared up in and around Litan-Sareikhong in Ukhrul district over an altercation between Kukis and Nagas.

This “local” dispute soon escalated into firing, arson and attacks on homes, with the violence first spreading through Ukhrul and later into Kamjong and Kangpokpi.

On March 11, 21 Nagas were “abducted” near Mongkot Chephu, and released only after negotiations. The same day, the bodies of two Kuki men suspected to have been abducted by Naga volunteers were recovered in Kamjong.

Gunfights followed in Sirarakhong, Sinakeithei and Mongkot Chephu, and by late April, the violence had spread to Mullam and Shongphel. The entry of armed groups based in Myanmar widened the conflict.

Then came the killing of three Kuki church leaders in Kangpokpi on May 13, which prompted retaliatory abductions by both sides and culminated in the killing of six Naga men, abducted from the Leilon Vaiphei area.

The incident has since become a rallying point for Naga civil society.

The economic factor

Security establishment sources say the conflict cannot be understood solely through the history of Naga-Kuki hostility or competing territorial claims. An economic contest over the illicit drug trade may be helping sustain the violence, they say.

Until recently, Moreh in Tengnoupal district was the principal transit point for narcotics and other illicit goods entering Manipur. Since the ethnic conflict began in 2023, Moreh has largely come under Kuki control, with the disruption of access to Imphal affecting the old trafficking chain. While routes through Kamjong have emerged as an alternative, it is a predominantly Naga area.

“So there is now a competition between groups over access, routes and money,” a security officer says.

The fact that some of the most serious recent attacks have taken place close to the Myanmar border has strengthened the suspicion that the conflict is intersecting with cross-border militant and trafficking networks. Earlier attacks on Naga villages had already raised concerns over the involvement of the KNA-B, a Myanmar-based Kuki armed group.

Militant competition

The violence is also becoming complicated due to growing rivalry within the Naga militant space. Security officials say the NSCN-IM initially appeared reluctant to aggressively confront Kuki groups, which created space for the Eastern Flank, a dissident faction based in Myanmar, to position itself as the more militant defender of Naga interests.

On March 28, four Eastern Flank cadres were killed at Hongbei in Kamjong, allegedly by the NSCN-IM. The preeminent Naga outfit denied any hand, but officials believe it orchestrated the attack due to apprehensions about losing influence.

“Now there is competition between the two over who can unleash more violence,” a security establishment officer says.

Officials fear this may get worse, in the light of broader changes within the Naga insurgent movement. Ikato Chishi Swu, the son of the late NSCN-IM founder Isak Chishi Swu, has joined dissident leaders in accusing the NSCN-IM leadership of “compromising” on the Naga cause.

Officials fear this could put additional pressure on the NSCN-IM to demonstrate its credentials among Nagas.

Stalled dialogue efforts

Efforts to open a political channel between the two communities have so far failed.

One of the more significant attempts came in July, when Church leaders from Mizoram and Nagaland brought together Kuki and Naga representatives in Aizawl to explore a dialogue. The Mizoram Kohhran Hruaitute Committee and Nagaland Joint Christian Forum agreed to facilitate direct talks between Naga and Kuki-Zo church bodies in Manipur.

The initiative however did not translate into a direct political dialogue.

Accusing the Nagas of ignoring overtures for peace, Henlianthang Thanglet, chairman of the Kuki Zonal Council, told The Indian Express: “Church leaders can hardly do anything as the whole thing is done by the NSCN-IM… We apologised for the killing of six Naga men in May itself. But they refused to accept it. Twenty-seven of our own people have been killed.”

The United Naga Council (UNC), in turn, blames Kuki militant groups for the dialogue’s failure. “Its success depends on the intent of the leadership. If they do not want peace, what can we do?” UNC president Ng Lorho told The Indian Express.

Divide within govt

The decision to have two Deputy Chief Ministers in the Manipur government – Nemcha Kipgen representing the Kuki-Zos and Losii Dikho the Nagas – was intended to create a political mechanism for managing competing ethnic interests.

Instead, the two have emerged as opposing voices in the Naga-Kuki conflict.

Dikho and other Naga legislators have accused Nemcha and her husband, Thangboi Kipgen, chairman of the Kuki National Front-Progressive, of having links to the killing of the six Naga men abducted from Leilon Vaiphei in May.

“Initially, it was thought the two could be engaged to defuse tensions. But now that is out of the question,” a Manipur official says.

The issue has also acquired an electoral dimension, with Assembly polls due early next year. The UNC has made the abrogation of the Suspension of Operations agreement with Kuki armed groups, action against those responsible for the killings of six Nagas and the removal of Nemcha from the Deputy CM’s post, its central demands.

For the past three months, the UNC managed to impose an economic blockade of highways through Naga-dominated Senapati. The blockade was finally suspended on September 26 following a meeting between the UNC, Union Home Ministry and Manipur government. The Centre assured the UNC that its demands would be addressed.

Delhi’s limitation

For the security establishment, the immediate task has become one of “managing” the violence, rather than ending it.

“We are largely responding to incidents. If there is violence, we rush forces to stop it from escalating. If a highway is blocked, we try to talk to the stakeholders. If a Kuki or Naga village has been cut off, we make sure food reaches them. But there is no effective way to find a solution,” a security establishment officer says.

However, there has been one unexpected shift due to the new tensions – Kuki leaders are reaching out to Meiteis. No major clashes have been reported between them recently. Kuki residents are also increasingly being allowed into Imphal to access healthcare and other services, or to travel out of the state by air.

Forty-fifty Kuki people now enter Imphal daily for such purposes without facing resistance, security officials estimate.