Updated: May 15, 2021 8:13:40 am
The pandemic hit last March and all high frequency indicators (nearly 60 of them) were peaking before that, till February. If the pandemic had, counterfactually, hit in April, our growth would have reached 6 per cent… India is the only country to have changed its narrative and brought in seminal changes to the way we think about the economy,” said KV Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India.
He was on a panel that discussed ‘India’s economy: How it can regain sustained growth’. Amy Kazmin, South Asia Bureau Chief, Financial Times, who moderated the conversation, also had on board P Anbalagan, CEO, Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation; Jahangir Aziz, Head Economist, Emerging Markets, JP Morgan; Rohini Malkani, Senior Vice President, Credit Ratings, Global Sovereign Ratings, DBRS Morningstar.
The panelists discussed the role of the state and investment climate for businesses, what an Atmanirbhar Bharat meant, what factors contributed to the slowing down of the economy, where the fault lines are and how the second wave of Covid-19 will impact growth.
Speaking about investment opportunities in Maharashtra, Anbalagan highlighted the efficient way the state had maintained supply chains, so that industries and businesses were not disrupted.
Aziz spoke of India’s dependence on globalisation and how a decline in global trade affected the country’s GDP. “India lost that driver of its growth. It hasn’t recovered over the last 10 years through reforms or policy changes… Together with demonetisation, GST and liquidity shocks, the situation has worsened,” said Aziz.
Malkani acknowledged the measures announced by the government to boost growth, though it would ultimately depend on implementation and execution, she said.
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