‘Likely to see several more variants before the virus reaches a state where it can’t mutate further’

Professor Salim Abdool Karim, a former head of South African Ministerial Advisory Committee on Covid-19, said that Omicron was unlikely to be the last major mutation of the coronavirus to spread around the world.

3 min readPuneDec 19, 2021 09:59 PM IST

Omicron is now the dominant circulating variant not just in South Africa, where it was first discovered in the third week of November, but many other countries in Africa and Europe. (File)

Even as the Omicron variant continues to spread at a fast rate in his own country and many other regions of the world, a top South African epidemiologist has warmed of the possibility of the emergence of more such variants in the next couple of years.

Professor Salim Abdool Karim, a former head of South African Ministerial Advisory Committee on Covid-19, told The Indian Express that Omicron was unlikely to be the last major mutation of the coronavirus to spread around the world.

“I anticipate that we are likely to see several more variants before the virus reaches a state where it cannot mutate further with an advantage. I do not know when this is going to happen… perhaps over the next 2-3 years,” Karim said in an email interview.

“The mutations are expected to take us progressively to each new variant being more efficient in transmission and less virulent clinically (A variant that makes people more sick is likely to suffer from less spread as people stay home with infection),” he said.

In a commentary on the Omicron variant in The Lancet journal that he had co-authored earlier this month, Professor Karim had written that vaccinated people were likely to face a much lower risk of severe disease from the Omicron infection. But he also says that there is a lot of uncertainty about the exact nature of this variant since the cumulative impact of all the mutations in Omicron is not fully understood.

“Although immunological and clinical data are not yet available to provide definitive evidence, we can extrapolate from what is known about the mutations of Omicron to provide preliminary indications on transmissibility, severity and immune escape. Omicron has some deletions and more than 30 mutations, several of which overlap with those in the Alpha, Beta, Gamma or Delta variants. These deletions and mutations are known to lead to increased transmissibility, higher viral binding affinity and higher antibody escape,” he said.

“But the effects of most of the remaining Omicron mutations are not known, resulting in a high level of uncertainty about how the full combination of deletions and mutations will affect viral behaviour and susceptibility to natural and vaccine mediated immunity,” he said.

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“At this stage, the available anecdotal data from clinicians at the front lines in South Africa suggest that patients with Omicron are younger people with a clinical presentation similar to that of past variants. However this anecdotal information should be treated with caution given that severe Covid- 19 cases typically present several weeks after the initial symptoms associated with mild disease,” he said.

Omicron is now the dominant circulating variant not just in South Africa, where it was first discovered in the third week of November, but many other countries in Africa and Europe. One infected person in the UK has also died, though it is still not clear whether the infection with Omicron was incidental to, or the cause of, death.

Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More

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