April 14, 2009 3:16:48 am
New Government will not last its full term after the April/May General Election and the country could face uncertainty after two or three years,a Reuters poll of 14 leading analysts has predicted.
A ruling alliance led by the Congress Party has been losing ground over the past few weeks amid coalition squabbles and may need leftist support to win office,the analysts added.
The main battle of the April 16-May 13 election will be between the Congress-led coalition,known as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA),and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
A group of smaller political parties,including the communists,have launched a Third Front in a bid to provide an alternative to the two main national coalitions. The Third Front had been gaining ground slowly in the poll,but this week was down 4 points since the previous week amid coalition problems.
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Congress has struggled to put together its alliance,unable to secure agreements for seat-sharing with some key partners in states such as Bihar and Tamil Nadu.
On average,analysts said there was a 22 percent chance a Congress-led alliance without communist support would win,up just 1 percent since last week’s poll.
There was a 36 percent possibility the Congress would win with communist support,up 3 percent since the previous week.
The chance of an NDA victory was 21 percent,down from 23 two weeks ago.
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