UDF candidate Jose Tom (extreme left), Mani C Kappan of the LDF (middle) and N Hari of the BJP (right)
Pala Election Results 2019: Reeling from the humilating defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala got a shot in the arm as its nominee pulled off a surprise victory in the bye-election in Pala, a constituency that has been a stronghold of the rival UDF over the last five decades. Mani C Kappan, the NCP leader and LDF nominee, prevailed over Jose Tom, the candidate of the Congress-led UDF, by 2943 votes as BJP candidate N Hari came in the third position. Kappan’s victory marks an end to the dominance of the Kerala Congress (M), an ally of the Congress, in Pala where it wielded influence among Catholic voters. For the last 54 years, late KM Mani, the founder-chief of the KC(M) represented Pala in the Kerala Assembly, holding the record for the longest-serving legislator. In fact, in 2006, 2011 and 2016 elections, Mani had vanquished Kappan on his way to the Assembly.
Jose K Mani, a senior leader of the KC(M) told reporters, after the results, “We accept the mandate of the people. We will examine the reasons for the defeat. Kerala Congress and the UDF will rectify its mistakes and win back confidence of the people. Politics is not about fearing defeat and brimming in confidence in a victory. Where has the BJP’s votes gone? It has gone definitely to the LDF. The UDF is united. Congress has fully supported us.”
The BJP, which had registered an impressive growth in the 2016 elections with nearly 25000 votes, had to be satisified with just 18,044 votes, signalling a deep dent in the saffron party’s vote-share. Both the LDF and UDF camps alleged that BJP votes flowed towards the other.
To read election results in Malayalam: Click here
The Pala win is a morale-booster for the Left, which is reeling from a humiliating drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections. The results show that the party has been able to make inroads into the dominant Catholic community and more importantly wrest a seat which ahs traditionally always voted for the UDF. Read more
Jose K Mani, a senior KC(M) leader and son of KM Mani, conceded defeat and promised that his party will rectify its mistakes.
"We accept the mandate of the people. We will examine the reasons for the defeat. Kerala Congress and the UDF will rectify its mistakes and win back confidence of the people. Politics is not about fearing defeat and brimming in confidence in a victory," Mani said. UDF candidate Jose Tom added, "It is God's will. Victories and defeats are common in an election. I will continue to work for the development of Pala."
For KC(M), Pala is a very important seat that it could not afford to lose. After all, the voters in Pala stood consistently for 54 years in solidarity with KM Mani, its founder-chief. But now, for the first time after the formation of the constituency, Pala has elected a Left-backed MLA.
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The final picture is in. Mani C Kappan of the LDF has registered a close, nail-biting victory over his UDF opponent Jose Tom by 2,943 votes. BJP candidate N Hari came in third.
LDF: 54137 votes
UDF: 51197 votes
NDA: 18044 votes
Jose K Mani, of the Kerala Congress (M): We accept the mandate of the people. We will examine the reasons for the defeat. Kerala Congress and the UDF will rectify its mistakes and win back confidence of the people. Politics is not about fearing defeat and brimming in confidence in a victory. Where has the BJP's votes gone? It has gone definitely to the LDF. The UDF is united. Congress has fully supported us.
He has a lead of just over 2000 votes, but with just eight booths left to be counted, Mani C Kappan of the LDF came out in front of reporters and claimed victory in Pala. He thanked the Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan, leaders of the CPM and other allies for campaigning for him. He also alleged that the BJP entered into a vote-trading deal with the UDF.
Jose Tom, the trailing candidate of the UDF, was all smiles during the initial rounds of counting. But as the gap between him and Mani C Kappan of the LDF widened, he quickly slipped out of the area and has entered to start talks with Jose K Mani, a senior leader of the KC(M).
Tense scenes were witnessed on the road in front of the residence of late KM Mani as LDF supporters celebrated their impending win in the Pala bypoll. Supporters of the Kerala Congress (M) blocked the LDF celebrations for a brief while as police stepped in to quash violence. As of now, the LDF candidate is leading by over 3,000 votes.
The LDF candidate Mani C Kappan lead had extended to 4300 votes about half an hour ago. But now with the votes being counted in Mutholi panchayat, his lead has dipped to 3700 votes. For the first time, UDF candidate Jose Tom led in a round of counting.
Trends right now:
LDF: 34603 votes
UDF: 30879 votes
NDA: 11010 votes.
In the run-up to the bypoll in Pala, I had taken the bus from Kochi to visit the constituency and examine the mood on the ground. In the course of reporting, I had spoken to different factions of the Kerala Congress, as well as to LDF and NDA leaders. While all three camps expressed optimism of a victory, there were clear indications that all was not well within the UDF camp. I had also written in detail about the legacy of KM Mani, the founder-chief of KC(M) and the influence he had over the voters of Pala. To the extent that the UDF candidate had even officially started his campaign from the graveyard where Mani was buried. Every day during the course of the campaign, KC(M) leaders lit candles and offered flowers at Mani's grave. For a party that has won every election in Pala since 1965, losing the constituency is a big deal. Read all about it here.
The raging feud within the Kerala Congress (M) between the Jose K Mani and PJ Joseph led factions seems to have reflected deeply in the trends so far in Pala. In all the 8 panchayats counted so far, the KC(M) candidate has trailed behind the LDF candidate. This is unprecedented, considering that these panchayats were all strongholds of the party. During campaigning, there were clear indications that there were differences within the UDF camp and that there was virtually little cohesion between workers of the two factions. That seems to have shown in these trends.
In the 2016 Assembly election, BJP candidate N Hari had registered a whopping 24000 votes, a four-fold gain from its votes in the 2011 election. This was indicative of the BJP's inroads into the Hindu community. But in this bypoll in Pala, it is clear that the BJP will not be able to match its 2016 vote-share. As of trends right now, the BJP candidate has got 8258 votes with just 5 panchayats left for counting. So have the BJP's votes transferred to the LDF? Has the rift between the BDJS and BJP reflected in this dent in vote-share? The gains from Sabarimala has also not reflected in these results.
Ramapuram: LDF
Kadanad: LDF
Melukavu: LDF
Bharananganam: LDF
Moonilavu: LDF
Thalanad: LDF
Thalappalam: LDF
These are the trends across the 7 panchayats counted so far.
Mani C Kappan (LDF): 21721 votes
Jose Tom (UDF): 18428 votes
N Hari (BJP): 6809 votes
The LDF candidate has been in front right from the time the counting process started. Surprisingly, Mani C Kappan of the LDF has led in all the five panchayats counted so far: Ramapuram, Kadanad, Melukavu, Moonilavu, Thalanad. All of these panchayats had voted overwhelmingly for the UDF candidate in the 2019 LS polls. This is a huge setback for the UDF if it continues to trail. Pala is not just any ordinary seat for the coalition. For the Kerala Congress, the seat holds prime significance as its founder-chief late KM Mani had got elected from Pala for a record 13 times right from 1965. If it goes on to lose Pala, the Kerala Congress will be prone to heavy factional feuds from within.
If these trends continue in Pala, it could be sweet revenge for LDF's Mani C Kappan. At the moment, he is leading over the UDF candidate Jose Tom by over 2100 votes. BJP candidate N Hari is in third place.
The LDF has extended its lead to three panchayats - Ramapuram, Kadanad and Melukavu. This is absolutely embarrassing for the Congress-led UDF camp. Pala is considered a stronghold of the coalition, especially of the Kerala Congress (M) where it wields influence over the Catholic voters. If it continues to trail in other panchayats, then it signals that there has been a deep rift in the votes of the KC(M) as a result of the tussle of leadership within the party.
Election observers and analysts may not count on the BJP to wrest Pala, but they are unequivocal that the performance of the saffron party will affect the prospects of the LDF and UDF camps. Pala is a Catholic-dominant seat, but last time, in 2016, the BJP registered a four-fold increase in its vote-share, digging deep into the constituency's Hindu vote base. The role played by the BDJS in shoring up Ezhava votes for the BJP was also pointed out last time. As well as it is important for the BJP to retain this vote-share, or even increase it, the LDF and UDF would be hoping to make inroads into the BJP pockets. After polling ended, there were also allegations from the LDF candidate that BJP had traded its votes for the UDF.
Mani C Kappan's leads in Pala have come surprisingly in the Ramapuram panchayat, where the UDF candidate had massive gains in the 2019 LS polls. So this is a reversal of sorts. Ramapuram incidentally is also a place where PJ Joseph, the rebel leader of the Kerala Congress holds influence. So have votes with allegiance to Joseph gone to the LDF camp? Many people think so.
Right, so here are the votes won by each candidate at this time.
Mani C Kappan (LDF): 4263 votes
Jose Tom (UDF): 4101 votes
N Hari (NDA): 1929 votes