Kerala Election Exit Poll 2026: Kerala projections predict UDF comeback, narrow lead over LDF
Kerala Assembly Election Exit Poll 2206: Congress-led UDF is likely to claim power in Kerala, unseating the ruling LDF, according to exit poll surveys. In Kerala's 140-member Legislative Assembly, the halfway mark required to form a government is 71 seats.
According to surveys, Congress-led UDF is likely to clinch power in Kerala, unseating the ruling LDF. (Photo Credits: X/V D Satheesan,
Pinarayi Vijayan)
Congress-led United Democratic Forum (UDF) is likely to win the 2026 Assembly elections in Kerala, unseating the ruling Left Democratic Forum’s (LDF) Pinarayi Vijayan, according to surveys.
In Kerala’s 140-member Legislative Assembly, the halfway mark required to form a government is 71 seats. According to the Axis My India survey, UDF is expected to win 78-90 seats, while the LDF is expected to win around 49-62. Likewise, according to the People’s Pulse exit poll survey, the UDF is set to win a 75-85 majority mark, while the ruling LDF is trailing with 55-65 expected seats. Results for the Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 are set to be declared on May 4, after voting was held on April 9.
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Kerala Assembly Election 2026
Exit Polls Out
Kerala election exit poll 2026 UDF comeback projected
140 seats · 71 for majority · Turnout 2026: 78.27%
Historic mandate: The LDF won a second consecutive term — the first ruling front in Kerala to do so. NDA drew a complete blank after BJP had held 1 seat (Nemom) since 2016.
Campaign Battlegrounds
UDFComeback after 10 years?
The Congress-led UDF is seeking to return to power after the LDF broke Kerala's five-year change-of-government pattern in 2021.
LDFIncumbent under pressure
The LDF won 99 seats in 2021 with CPI(M) alone winning 62, but exit polls show it well short of majority.
TurnoutHigher participation in 2026
Kerala voted on April 9 and recorded 78.27% turnout — up from 74.07% in 2021.
Exit polls have in the past shown divergent projections: Exit polls in Kerala’s 2021 Assembly elections largely predicted an LDF win but underestimated the scale of its victory, while overestimating the Opposition UDF’s performance. The LDF eventually secured 99 seats against the UDF’s 41, significantly outperforming most projections.
High-stakes battleground: Voting for the 2026 Assembly elections in Kerala concluded on April 9 with a high voter turnout. Kerala has emerged as a high-stakes political battleground. The LDF is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term after breaking the state’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments, making the outcome crucial for both his political future and the Left’s position nationally. Meanwhile, Congress-led UDF under V D Satheesan is relying on anti-incumbency sentiment and corruption allegations to position itself as the agent of change.
BJP’s high hopes: At the same time, the BJP, led in Kerala by Rajeev Chandrasekhar, is pushing for a historic breakthrough, with an intense campaign, visible friction within the INDIA bloc, and closely contested opinion polls pointing to a tight race that could ultimately hinge on the performance of smaller parties and independent candidates.
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Kerala projections predict UDF comeback, narrow lead over LDF
Exit polls for Kerala’s 2026 Assembly elections indicate a potential comeback for the Congress-led UDF, with most surveys predicting a slim advantage over the CPI(M)-led LDF after a decade of Left rule under Pinarayi Vijayan.
Pollsters broadly place the UDF in the range of 70-85 seats, just above the majority mark of 70 in the 140-member Assembly, while the LDF is projected to secure around 55-69 seats. The BJP-led NDA is expected to remain a minor player, with estimates ranging from 1 to 7 seats.
Vote share projections also reflect the tight race, with one survey putting the UDF at around 44% and the LDF at 39%, suggesting a narrow gap compared to 2021 when the LDF secured a decisive victory. With multiple agencies indicating a close finish, the final outcome is likely to hinge on marginal seat-level swings across the state.
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: BJP to get 0 seats in Kerala, survey claims
According to Vote Vibe exit poll survey, the Bharatiya Janata Party led NDA alliance will get 0 seats in Kerala Assembly polls results, set to be out on Monday May 4, 2026.
Exit poll:
UDF: 70-80
LDF: 58-68
BJP+: 0-0
OTH: 0-4
Apr 29, 2026 08:53 PM IST
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: UDF set to win majority of seats, yet LDF close, survey says
According to Peoples Pulse exit poll survey, the Congress-led UDF is set to win a 75-85 majority mark in Kerala Assembly polls 2026, while the ruling left alliance of LDF is trailing with 55-65 expected seats.
Exit poll:
UDF: 75-85
LDF: 55-65
BJP+: 0-3
OTH: 0-0
Apr 29, 2026 08:44 PM IST
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: BJP likely to win 10-14 seats in Kerala, survey claims
According to Peoples Insight exit poll survey, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win 10-14 seats in Kerala Assembly elections 2026.
Exit poll:
UDF: 66-76
LDF: 58-68
BJP+: 10-14
OTH: 0-1
Apr 29, 2026 08:06 PM IST
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Kerala has emerged as a high-stakes political battleground
Kerala assembly on evening of exit polls.
Apr 29, 2026 08:03 PM IST
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: UDF to win Kerala, Vijarayan may have to unseat, says survey
Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to claim power in the state of Kerala, with the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) under Pinarayi Vijayan to lose, ceasing chances of his third term as the state's Chief Minister, according to the Axis My India survey.
Exit poll:
UDF: 78-90
LDF: 49-62
BJP+: 0-3
OTH: 0-0
Apr 29, 2026 06:55 PM IST
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: NDA to get 0-3 seats in Kerala, survey says
According to Axis my India's survey, BJP will get 0-3 seats out of the total 140 in Kerala.
Apr 29, 2026 06:45 PM IST
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Congress may clinch power but LDF close, show surveys
According to surveys, Congress-led UDF is likely to clinch power in Kerala, unseating the ruling LDF.
Apr 29, 2026 06:31 PM IST
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Exit polls to announce soon on Kerala's 140 seats, stay tuned for live updates
Exit polls for the Kerala Assembly Elections on 140 seats will be announced soon. Stay tuned for live updates.
Apr 29, 2026 05:51 PM IST
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: 87 seats stayed loyal since ߛ Kerala poll data signals tight battle
An analysis of Kerala’s past three Assembly elections reveals strong political continuity, with 87 out of 140 seats held by the same parties since 2011, underscoring entrenched voter loyalties across the state. The CPI(M)-led LDF, led by Pinarayi Vijayan, has maintained dominance in several northern districts, while the Congress-led UDF retains influence in central Kerala and the IUML remains strong in Malappuram.
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: ‘Tacit deal’ row sharpens Kerala’s three-cornered contest
Kerala’s Assembly election battle has intensified with fresh allegations of “tacit deals” among the CPI(M)-led LDF, Congress-led UDF and the BJP, turning the campaign more confrontational despite its initial focus on development.
Opposition leader V D Satheesan has accused Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan of having an understanding with the BJP in key constituencies, a charge the Left has strongly denied while countering that the Congress has historically aligned with the saffron party.
The controversy has gained traction amid the BJP’s growing presence in seats like Nemom and Thiruvananthapuram, where state BJP chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar is contesting, making its vote share increasingly decisive in close contests.
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Kerala poll turnout trends showed urban rise in Thiruvananthapuram, dip in Kannur
Kerala’s 2026 Assembly polls, which recorded a strong overall turnout of 78.27%, have thrown up contrasting regional trends, with urban constituencies, especially in Thiruvananthapuram, seeing a notable rise in voter participation, while several CPI(M) strongholds in Kannur registered a slight dip.
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Kerala polls see ‘competitive secularism’ as LDF, UDF trade charges
Kerala’s Assembly election campaign has seen an intensified battle over secular credentials, with both the CPI(M)-led LDF and Congress-led UDF accusing each other of tacit understandings with rival ideological groups, signalling that the contest is no longer one-sided.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has positioned the election as a choice between a “reliable” Left and a Congress that could indirectly benefit the BJP, while Opposition leader V D Satheesan has countered by highlighting alleged inconsistencies within the Left.
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Kerala saw strong vote turnout despite SIR electorate drop, women outvote men
On April 9, Kerala saw robust voter participation despite an 8.63% drop in its electorate following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), with the total voter base reducing from 2.78 crore to 2.71 crore.
Women voters led the turnout at 80.86%, higher than men at 75.01%, as polling crossed 75% in all 14 districts and surpassed the 76% turnout recorded in 2021, with several constituencies already reporting over 80% participation before final figures.
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: First election after SIR
It was the first election in Kerala and Puducherry since the electoral rolls' Special Intensive Revision (SIR) was finished in February of this year.
Apr 29, 2026 04:27 PM IST
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Vijayan 'referendum' vs UDF 'anti-incumbency' push
Kerala’s electoral battle has sharpened into a direct contest between continuity and change, with the CPI(M)-led LDF centring its campaign on governance, infrastructure and welfare, while branding the previous UDF regime as a “dark period.” In contrast, the Congress-led UDF, under V D Satheesan, is attempting to capitalise on voter fatigue after a decade of Left rule, highlighting issues such as price rise, unemployment and rural distress.
Kerala Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: How accurate were the Kerala exit polls in 2021?
Exit polls in Kerala’s 2021 Assembly elections largely predicted an LDF win but underestimated the scale of its victory, while overestimating the Opposition UDF’s performance.
The LDF eventually secured 99 seats against the UDF’s 41, significantly outperforming most projections.
