Titled as ‘India’s Demography at 2040: Planning Public Good Provision for the 21st Century’ — the chapter seven of the report is dedicated to the new economic paradigm that will come into being as India transitions into an ageing society.
“The southern states, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal and Maharashtra now have fertility rates (TFR) well below the replacement rate. TFR in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are above the replacement rate but are also experiencing significant declines. As a result, the national TFR is expected to be below replacement level by 2021,” the report states.
The report estimates the country’s working-age population growth for the next two decades will be 9.7 million per year for 2021-31 and 4.2 million per year in 2031-41.
While informing that the proportion of elementary school-going children, i.e. 5-14 age group, will witness significant declines, the report underlined the importance of modifying the country’s educational and health infrastructure in accordance with the population growth pattern.
“Meanwhile, the proportion of elementary school-going children, i.e. 5-14 age group, will witness significant declines. Contrary to popular perception, many states need to pay greater attention to consolidating/merging schools to make them viable rather than building new ones. At the other end of the age scale, policy makers need to prepare for ageing. This will need investments in health care as well as a plan for increasing the retirement age in a phased manner,” the report said.