October 1, 2021 9:38:19 am
This year, India recorded normal rainfall that was quantitatively 99 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the monsoon season that ended on Thursday. Against a normal LPA of 88cm, this year’s season ended with 87cm, said officials of India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The withdrawal of monsoon is all set to commence from October 6 from parts of northwest India. If realised, 2021 withdrawal commencement will be the second most delayed since 1961. In 2019, the withdrawal commenced only on October 9.
“The favourable conditions for the commencement of monsoon withdrawal will develop during the next five days. We expect the withdrawal to start from northwestern parts of India around October 6,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of IMD.
During this year’s monsoon, enhanced rainfall during September significantly contributed in making up for the highly deficient August rainfall, said Met officials. From -24 per cent recorded in August alone, the September rainfall jumped to +35 per cent.
In September, the country recorded 229.7mm of rain against a normal of 170.2 mm. The development of Cyclone Gulab in addition to the four consecutive low-pressure systems, favourable phase of Madden Julian Oscillation
and waning Indian Ocean Dipole values all contributed to the heavy rain.
“August and September were entirely contrasting months. All unfavorable conditions that prevailed during August turned favourable in September, when consecutive low-pressure systems developed in the Bay of Bengal and kept the monsoon active over most areas of the country. During September, central and northwest India received very good rain,” said Mohapatra.
The month-wise realised rainfall, against the LPA, was June — 110 per cent, July — 93 per cent , August — 76 per cent and September — 135 per cent. This is the third consecutive September in recent decades when the country recorded excess rainfall.
“This could be part of the intra-seasonal and inter-annual variations, but there is no long-term trend such that September rainfall is appreciably above normal. But, due to a delay in monsoon withdrawal, rainfall continues in September,” shared D Sivanand Pai, head of Climate Research and Services, IMD, Pune.
Mohapatra added that the monsoon rainfall this season saw uniform distribution except in August, which went against what the Met office had forecast.
The rainfall recorded along the homogeneous regions were — northwest India (96 per cent), east and northeast India (88 per cent), central India (104 per cent) and south peninsular India (111 per cent) with respect to their LPAs.
This season, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, north Karnataka, northwest Madhya Pradesh, west Rajasthan, Odisha and coastal West Bengal experienced multiple extremely heavy rainfall events (rainfall more than 204 mm in 24 hours).
For the second consecutive year, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (NMMT), Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and west Uttar Pradesh ended with below normal rainfall.
In both 2020 and 2021, NMMT had remained at -32 per cent; Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh went from -29 per cent last year to -34 per cent in 2021; and west Uttar Pradesh went from -21 per cent in 2020 to -37 per cent this year.
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