RS polls could force BJP, PDP hand

4 seats at stake, tying up now can provide the numbers and end the suspense over a coalition.

3 min readAmritsar/new Delhi, New DelhiJan 22, 2015 03:49 AM IST

The forthcoming election to four Rajya Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir may finally force an end to the suspense behind the future coalition that would subsequently form the government in J&K.

There are clear indications that PDP and BJP are close to reach an understanding but don’t want to rush into it. This election, however, may snatch the luxury of time from these parties, forcing them to take a decision.

Four seats — two each held by previous alliance partners the Congress and the National Conference — are going to polls on February 7, and parties have to file nominations by January 28.

The election is especially important for the BJP that wants to bolster its numbers in the Rajya Sabha. And as the verdict has been fractured, the only way for the BJP to win a realistically possible three seats, if not all four with the right arithmetic, is to tie up with the PDP. This would ensure that the Congress and the NC — even if they come together for this election — wouldn’t manage to win even one of the four seats. The election is also crucial for the Congress, who cannot afford to lose the seat of former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha.

Though there are four seats, the Election Commission issues only three notifications, one of these for two seats. This means that for two seats where the contest is separate, the winning candidate needs 44 votes in an 87-member assembly. For the other two seats that go to polls under a joint notification and each legislator has to give two preferences, the winner needs 29 votes.

If the PDP and BJP fail to come up with an alliance, there is every likelihood that other possible combinations may ruin the party for especially the BJP. And as it is very clear that the PDP and the BJP are at an advanced stage of forming an alliance, this election may force them to iron out any hurdles and expedite the process. Sources reveal that the BJP doesn’t want any of the RS seats to go to its main opposition.

A senior PDP leader said the election is much more important for the BJP than for his party but agreed there is no room for delay an alliance now if the party wants to go with the BJP eventually for a coalition. “It will be stupid to fight separately if we are eventually going to go together in the state.” Sources reveal the PDP wanted to avoid taking a decision at this juncture and was in favour of postponing the RS polls.

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Meanwhile, Ghulam Nabi Azad is also actively trying to stitch together a loose alliance between Congress, NC and legislators from smaller parties to secure at least one seat. If the PDP and the BJP fail to come together for this election, then governor’s rule will stretch a little longer.

Muzamil Jaleel

Muzamil Jaleel is a Deputy Editor at The Indian Express and is widely recognized as one of India’s most authoritative voices on Jammu & Kashmir, national security, and internal affairs. With a career spanning over 30 years, he has provided definitive on-the-ground reportage from the heart of the Kashmir conflict, bearing witness to historic political transitions and constitutional shifts. Expertise and Investigative Depth Muzamil’s work is characterized by a rare combination of ground-level immersion and high-level constitutional analysis. His expertise includes: Conflict & Geopolitics: Decades of reporting on the evolution of the Kashmir conflict, the Indo-Pak peace process, and the socio-political dynamics of the Himalayan region. Constitutional Law: Deep-dive analysis of Article 370 and Article 35A, providing clarity on the legal and demographic implications of their abrogation in 2019. Human Rights & Accountability: A relentless investigator of state and non-state actors, uncovering systemic abuses including fake encounters and the custodial death of political workers. International War Reporting: Beyond South Asia, he provided on-the-spot coverage of the final, decisive phase of the Sri Lankan Civil War in 2009. Landmark Exposés & Impact Muzamil’s reporting has repeatedly forced institutional accountability and shaped national discourse: The Kashmir Sex Scandal (2006): His investigative series exposed a high-profile exploitation nexus involving top politicians, bureaucrats, and police officers, leading to the sacking and arrest of several senior officials. Fake Encounters: His reports blew the lid off cases where innocent civilians were passed off as "foreign terrorists" by security forces for gallantry awards. SIMI Investigations: He conducted a massive deep-dive into the arrests of SIMI members, using public records to show how innocuous religious gatherings were often labeled as incriminating activities by investigative agencies. The Amarnath Land Row: Provided critical context to the 2008 agitation that polarized the region and altered its political trajectory. Over the years, Muzamil has also covered 2002 Gujarat riots, Bhuj earthquake, assembly elections in Bihar for Indian Express. He has also reported the peace process in Northern Ireland, war in Sri Lanka and national elections in Pakistan for the paper. Awards and Fellowships His "Journalism of Courage" has been honored with the industry's most prestigious accolades: Four Ramnath Goenka Awards: Recognized for J&K Reportage (2007), On-the-Spot Reporting (2009), and Reporting on Politics and Government (2012, 2017). Kurt Schork Award: From Columbia University for international journalism. Sanskriti Award: For excellence in Indian journalism and literature. IFJ Tolerance Prize: For his empathetic and nuanced reporting in South Asia. International Fellowships: Served as a visiting scholar at UC Berkeley and worked with The Guardian, The Observer, and The Times in London. He has also received Chevening fellowship and a fellowship at the Institute of Social Studies, Hague, Netherlands. Professional Presence Current Location: New Delhi (formerly Bureau Chief, Srinagar). Education: Master’s in Journalism from Kashmir University. Social Media: Follow him for field insights and rigorous analysis on X (Twitter) @MuzamilJALEEL. ... Read More

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