In keeping with the early signals, the Indian Meteorological Department on Wednesday forecast a ‘below normal’ rainfall for the four month monsoon season of June to September.
The IMD said India as a whole was likely to receive 93 per cent of its normal rainfall. It said there was a 35 percent probability that the rainfall would remain between 90 to 96 per cent, which is classified as ‘below normal’. There was an error margin of 5 per cent in the forecast, IMD said.
If the rainfall follows the forecast, this would be the second successive year of below normal rainfall. Last year, India has received 88 per cent of normal rainfall.
India receives 89 cm of rainfall during the monsoon season.
One of the factors dragging monsoon rainfall this year is the development of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific ocean. El Nino is a warming effect in the Pacific Ocean of the south American coast that is known to have an impact on Indian monsoon. An El Nino has mostly corresponded to poor monsoon in India.