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India to surpass China by 2022 to become world’s most populous nation

Around and after 2022, India's population is projected to continue growing for several decades to 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050

By: PTI | United Nations |
July 30, 2015 12:59:13 pm

India will surpass China to become the most populous nation in the world by 2022, six years sooner than previously forecast, and the country is projected to retain the top spot till 2100, the UN has said.

The ‘World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision’ launched yesterday projected that within seven years, the population of India is expected to surpass that of China.

Currently, the population of China is approximately 1.38 billion compared with 1.31 billion in India.


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Around and after 2022, India’s population is projected to continue growing for several decades to 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050, while the population of China is expected to remain fairly constant until the 2030s, after which it is expected to slightly decrease.

India will remain the most populous the country in the world till 2100, according to the report.

According to the forecast issued in 2013, India was expected to surpass China’s population by 2028 but the latest report predicts that India will overtake its Asian rival six years early by 2022.

The report said India will remain the most populous country in the world in 2050 with a population of 1. 7 billion.

It also projected that India will continue to have the largest population size in the year 2100 even though its population will decline slightly from 1.7 billion in 2050 to 1.66 billion by the end of the 21st Century.

The current world population of 7.3 billion is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.

The report said during 2015-2050, half of the world’s population growth is expected to be concentrated in nine countries – India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, US, Indonesia and Uganda – listed according to the size of their contribution to the total growth.

India is expected to remain a relatively young country in the decades going forward.

Its median age in 2015 is 26.6 years and this would grow to 31.2 years in 2030, 37.3 years in 2050 and 47 years in 2100.

In comparison, China’s median age will be 43.2 years in 2030, 49.6 years in 2050 and 51.1 years by the end of the century.

The US will have a median age of 40 years in 2030, 41.7 years in 2050 and 44.7 years in 2100.

India’s life expectancy at birth will also improve over the next decades, growing from 71.7 years in 2025-2030 to 75.9 years in 2045-2050 and 84.6 years in 2095-2100.

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