April 29, 2015 1:13:37 am
The developing El Nino condition in the Pacific Ocean, which is known to have an adverse impact on India’s monsoon, has strengthened further, the latest bulletin from the Australian weather office has said.
El Nino is a condition in which the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. It is known to have an effect on weather events worldwide, including the monsoon.
“The SST (sea-surface temperature) anomaly map for the week ending 26 April shows warm anomalies in excess of +1 °C extend across the equatorial Pacific,” the Bureau of Meteorology of Australian government said in its bulletin on Tuesday.
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This was 0.3 degree celsius warmer than two weeks ago when the previous bulletin was issued. Scientists say the complete nature of this El Nino and its likely impact on the monsoon would become clear only by June.
The Indian Meteorological Department, in its first long-range forecast for this year’s monsoon season, predicted “below-normal” rainfall. It said India as a whole was likely to receive only 93 per cent of the “normal” rainfall during the season, and blamed the bleak outlook primarily on the developing El Nino.
The Australia bureau said the sea temperatures were likely to get warmer. “Further increases in surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific are expected to result as warm anomalies below the surface of the tropical Pacific continue to migrate eastward and rise towards the surface of the ocean,” it said.
The bureau said based upon model outlooks and current observations, there was a “triple than normal chance” of an El Nino event this year.
“All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the southern hemisphere spring,” it said.
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