BJP 2014
BJP sets its sights on capturing power in the 2014 general elections.
Two years ago,after a second straight defeat in the general election,the BJP had its back to the wall. But now,as the party looks at the 2014 elections,it starts on a stronger wicket—the UPA government is seen as being in disarray and the popular anti-corruption mood is stacked against the Congress.
Leaders like Jaswant Singh,Uma Bharti and Sanjay Joshi are back in the party fold and the BJP has found some allies as well. The party has managed to push the UPA on to the backfoot and even take credit for spreading awareness about corruption. With Anna Hazare setting the mood and the UPA hurtling from one crisis to another,the BJP is all set to go for the kill.
“We have been able to put our house in order. The internal organisational environment is now quite good,” senior leader Arun Jaitley told The Sunday Express.
The party feels it has done well on the choice of issues it has taken up against the UPA—price rise,corruption,terrorism,and the Centre’s transgression on principles of federalism.
“The Ayodhya issue had the potential to become problematic,but the Supreme Court judgment eased our troubles,” a senior leader said.
But three years is a long time in politics,as the BJP would well know,and there are challenges that the party faces on the road to 2014—settling the leadership question,attracting new allies to expand the NDA and striking a balance between ideological and centrist issues. But the internecine shadow boxing between its top leaders could put the party in a self-destructive mode.
The faultlines are showing up. “The leadership issue is far from resolved. We can pretend to ignore it but can’t do so for long if we are aiming to capture power in 2014,” a leader admitted.
The leadership challenge
While the BJP has set its sights on capturing power in 2014,top leaders are striking their own paths,each trying to outdo the other in the leadership stakes. Consider this: L K Advani announces his decision to roll out his rath once again—he has charioted it five times before with diminishing returns—and sets off unease in the party over the role he sees for himself. Then,Narendra Modi,riding on a “favourable” Supreme Court ruling,goes on a ‘sadbhavana fast’ and says “communal frenzy never helped anybody”—seen as a clear attempt to re-invent himself and position himself for the top post.
There is palpable disquiet among a section of BJP leaders about Advani’s yatra plan. His announcement has triggered a debate in the media and in party circles over whether the BJP veteran is seeking a more active role for himself in the party,in which case he could end up complicating the leadership issue for the party. Sources say the RSS,though fully behind his anti-corruption campaign,has sent out feelers to Advani so that he sends out some sort of a signal “de-coupling” his yatra from the leadership issue. Those in the know say he is expected to clarify soon.
Meanwhile,an idea,which will have huge ramifications for the BJP and its prime ministerial hopeful,has already germinated in the Sangh—Modi leading the BJP into 2014. Though premature,sources say the Sangh leadership has started weighing the pros and cons of the BJP projecting Modi as its “mascot” for 2014. A tough task for the Sangh,which will have to first make up its mind and then take the proposal to the BJP’s top four—Advani,Nitin Gadkari,Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj—all seen as contenders for the top post.
Sushma Swaraj,by virtue of being Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha,is often considered a strong contender for the PM’s post if the NDA comes to power. In fact,in 2007,Advani had said that in British parliamentary practice,the Leader of Opposition is seen as the shadow Prime Minister. The shadow boxing that has been witnessed between Jaitley and Swaraj have also led to speculation that both are vying for the top post.
Rajnath Singh,sources said,has declined to be the party’s candidate in UP,preferring to continue in national politics. This is being seen as a sign that he doesn’t want to confine himself to UP and that he has larger goals.
Party president Nitin Gadkari,who incidentally underwent a weight-loss surgery,has made it clear that the leadership question should be left open.
Advani or Modi?
The leadership issue resurfaced after Advani announced his yatra and Modi went in for an image makeover exercise. While Jaitley,Swaraj and Rajnath Singh are the known contenders,Nitin Gadkari,relatively new in the power corridors—also fancies his chances. And then,there is Modi,openly seeking to reinvent himself.
Though Modi has in the past shared an uneasy relationship with the RSS and other Sangh Parivar outfits,sources say the RSS is now considering his potential as leader. It acknowledges he is hugely popular,has a proven administrative track record,and can be the perfect mascot for the ‘good governance and clean politics’ plank that the BJP hopes to ride on.
“We accept we had some problems with him at the local level. It is mainly related to his inter-personal skills. We set right most of the issues by engaging him. His human relation side still needs improvement. We will talk to him,” a senior RSS functionary said.
Modi’s popularity outside Gujarat goes in his favour too. “I still remember,Modi had come to Bangalore to attend the funeral of H V Sheshadri in 2008. People who had come for the funeral procession started shouting pro-Modi slogans when they saw him. That is the kind of popularity he enjoys,” the RSS leader said.
But the Advani yatra has come as the twist in the tale.
Insiders in the party say Advani’s friends had been nudging him for a while now to lead a campaign against black money. They had even approached the Sangh leadership last year with the proposal. His colleagues in the BJP,however,were not very receptive to that idea. Eventually,corruption became the main issue.
Though the RSS and the BJP backed Hazare’s campaign,the Sangh has been of the view that corruption is essentially a political issue that should be wrested back from non-political actors.
At the recent ‘samanvay baithak’ in Ujjain,Sangh elders expressed this view to the BJP top brass. But while the Sangh has conveyed to Advani that it will fully support his yatra—RSS sarkaryavah Bhaiyaji Joshi had a meeting with Advani earlier this week—it wants him to clearly spell out that he is not in the leadership race.
So it wasn’t lost on anyone when on Friday,Advani reproduced an article in his blog which said the US administration was preparing to see the return of the BJP to power with Narendra Modi as PM—sending out the message that the Modi idea was acceptable to him.
But at the same time,the party is divided on Advani’s yatra. Many top leaders feel it was unnecessary. “Yatra is an outdated concept,” a senior leader said. There is also unease over Advani’s remarks,which he made in Nellore in August,that the UPA has exhausted its mandate. “Such remarks raise questions about our sincerity on the issue of corruption. It gives a feeling that we are using this issue to wrest power and that we are in a hurry,” he said.
“It is necessary that we establish our sincerity and seriousness about all the issues that are confronting the nation. Whether it is terrorism or corruption,we should be able to convince the people that we can offer solutions to these issues,” Vinay Sahasrabuddhe,Gadkari’s political adviser,said.
Finding allies
For the BJP to have a realistic shot at power in 2014,it needs allies to cross the magic figure.
The ally hunt has begun but then,it is not an easy task. Modi himself is in touch with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa—it was not without reason that she asked two of her top leaders to attend the Gujarat Chief Minister’s fast—while groundwork has begun to engage the BJD,TDP and NCP. It recently joined hands with Kuldeep Bishnoi’s Haryana Janhit Congress and Ramdas Athawale’s Republican Party of India. The JMM has been the BJP’s ally in Jharkhand. The party also hopes the decline of the Left—the fulcrum of the Third Front concept—will benefit it.
Besides,the BJP is unlikely to take up hardcore Hindutva issues which repel regional outfits. But it intends to play the soft Hindutva card,camouflaging it as nationalism. For instance,issues like infiltration,terrorism and now the Communal Violence Bill can be used to cater to the Hindutva vote bank.
Who is in charge here?
Another area of concern—which has largely been ignored by the top brass—is the unrest among the BJP’s third generation leaders.
“Young leaders have to balance themselves among the top leaders. We are always careful not to be caught in the crossfire. This is not doing the organisation any good. We knew Vajpayeeji was the leader at one point of time,that Advaniji was the leader at another point of time. We do not know who the leader is now,” a leader said.
On The Record
Arun Jaitley * Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha
‘Rath yatra should be seen as a political programme of the BJP’
In an environment where the UPA is facing one crisis after another,what is the road ahead for the BJP?
The government is in a clear drift. There is crisis of credibility,a crisis of leadership. As against this,we have been able to put our house in order. Our political performance outside and our parliamentary performance inside the House have been reasonably well. We have started gaining an edge over the Congress. Of course,there are still many things to be done. One of which is,we need to expand the NDA and get some more allies.
How do you see L K Advani’s proposed rath yatra?
The rath yatra should be seen as a political programme of the BJP. It is exclusively a political programme of the the BJP. Mr Advani strongly believes that a yatra is a very powerful instrument to connect the country.
There is a perception that Narendra Modi has gone on a fast to position himself at the national centrestage. Your view?
I don’t think a yatra or a fast should be seen through the prism of possible candidatures. Mr Modi has been wronged very badly by a hostile propaganda. Ultimately,when the Special Investigation Team has investigated it,they did not find any evidence against him. And therefore,he certainly has a right to respond and the Sadbhavana fast is his response…He wants to make his own political point. And he is legitimately entitled to do that.
Ram Madhav * RSS spokesperson
‘Advani hoping to be PM is a discussion only in the media’
With the UPA in a disarray,how does the RSS want the BJP to proceed?
The parivar is a non-political outfit. On the specific issues of day-to-day politics,there are capable leaders in the BJP and they will decide about all these things. Issues which are affecting the country’s larger interests—like the so-called committee on J&K or the failed attempt to bring a draconian Communal Violence Bill—do bother us. There we do see a role for the political arm—the BJP.
Your views on Advani’s yatra?
In March this year,we had passed a resolution calling upon all our cadres to support all campaigns against corruption. Our members actively supported the campaigns of Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare. So obviously,when Advani launches a campaign against corruption,swayamsevaks will wholeheartedly join it.
There is a sense that LK Advani hopes to become a prime ministerial candidate again.
This is a discussion that’s on in the media. I have not come across Mr Advani or anyone else in the party suggesting anything to that effect.
What is the RSS’s take on Modi’s fast?
The SC decision shows the allegations levelled against Modi and his government by vested interests perhaps have no basis. Probably,after the ruling,the chief minister must have felt some kind of a statement has to be made to the people.
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