While the MET department has announced that the much awaited south west monsoon is expected to hit the Nicobar islands in the next three to four days and would take some more weeks to touch the Kerala coast, private forecaster Skymet has gone ahead and issued a forecast of an “early onset date” over Kerala, declaring the date as May 29. They have also issued onset dates for each state where they said the monsoons would touch the state on June 10, the expected date for the state.
On Friday, the Met department was cautious, stating that conditions were becoming favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman sea and the Nicobar islands in the next three to four days.
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Met officials however said they would carefully watch the progress and issue the onset date on May 15 only.
“As of now, we can say that conditions are becoming favourable over Andaman and Nicobar islands and the remaining progress would have to be monitored in the coming weeks,’’ states Sunita Devi, director (weather section) IMD, Pune.
IMD long range forecaster chief S Pai said that they would be issuing the official forecast of the onset after assessing the data.
“We should be issuing the onset date in a couple of days. Generally, it is seen that the southwest monsoon crosses the Andamans after May 20 and if the progress continues the normal date of onset is June 1. However we will issue the onset date accordingly,’’ said Pai.
While the Met department has taken a cautious approach, private forecaster Skymet in their onset outlook for the country said the southwest monsoon should touch the Kerala coast between May 28-30 with an error margin of two days. The official arrival date of monsoon in Kerala is June 1.
In their forecast, they said the monsoon will arrive over the Andaman and Nicobar islands between May 18 and May 20 and is expected to touch the state on June 10, while it would reach the capital on July 1. They said the present weather conditions indicate a promising beginning for the monsoons.
The weather department stated that this year, the country is expected to see above normal rainfall. After two years of consecutive dry years, the Met department stated this year would see good rainfall.
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Presently, a cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level is lying over the southwest Bay of Bengal adjoining the equatorial Indian Ocean, off the south coast of Sri Lanka and under this a low pressure is expected to be formed by Saturday and it is all set to become a depression during the next 48 hours, stated Met officials.