Delayed onset over Kerala is unlikely to have any impact on the overall rainfall that is likely to happen in this monsoon season, the Met department said Thursday, as it reconfirmed its earlier forecast of above normal rainfall in the four-month June-September season.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), in its second stage forecast issued today, said it could still take about four or five days for the monsoon rains to arrive over the Kerala coast. The normal date of monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1. The IMD had, a couple of weeks earlier, said the onset would be delayed by a week, possibly more, and it would now happen around June 7.
But that has not resulted in any change in the overall rainfall during this rainy season. The IMD said the country as a whole was likely to get rainfall that was 106 per cent of normal, with a four per cent model error. This is exactly what it had said in April, in its first forecast for the season. It reiterated that there was a 94 per cent probability of this forecast being true, and zero chance that rainfall would remain below 90 per cent of normal.
The IMD also released its forecast for regional and monthly distribution of rainfall that is likely to happen in the June-September rainy season. It said the northwestern part of India, which includes Punjab, Haryana, eastern Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, would receive rainfall that was likely to be 108 per cent of normal. Central India as well as south India were expected to get 113 per cent of normal rainfall, while northeastern India was likely to be driest, receiving only 94 per cent of normal rainfall.
Both July and August were likely to bring more than normal rainfall. Rains were expected to be 107 per cent of normal in July and 104 per cent of normal in August. Because of the late onset, first half of June was likely to be dry, but good rainfall was expected in the second half, the IMD said.
The monsoon is currently located around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where it has been for about two weeks. Many parts of Kerala have begun getting pre-monsoon showers. “Conditions are rife for the onset of monsoon over Kerala in the next four to five days,” IMD director general L S Rathore said.