An opinion poll conducted by CVoter and telecast on India TV on Friday showed significant changes in government formation in the four states going to the polls in April-May.
While the CPM-led LDF will come to power in Kerala after a gap of five years, the BJP and its allies will fall short of a simple majority in the Assam assembly, the poll showed. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress will retain power albeit with a reduced majority and in the southern citadel of Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK would fall two seats short of the half-way mark.
Although it is indeed very early to predict voter tendencies, the poll does give a rough idea of how the parties may fare. A sample size of 14,353 respondents were consulted for the survey. The margin of error is +/-3% at the state level and +/-5% at the regional level.
In Kerala, if the pollsters are correct, it will be a resounding victory for the Left parties with a vote-share of 44.6% and a total seat tally of 89 seats in the 140-member state assembly. On the other hand, the Congress-led UDF will fall drastically to end up at 49 seats from the present 72 seats. The numbers prove that the anti-incumbency sentiment against the Oommen Chandy-led government is high, given the number of scandals the government has been hit by.
Another change of government is likely in the northeastern state of Assam where the incumbent Tarun Gogoi-led Congress party will bite dust, the poll showed. A fall in 4% vote-share for the Congress will lead to it losing 34 seats and thus any chance of forming a government. The half-way mark is 64. The BJP and its allies are likely to get 57 seats, falling short of majority. It has to be noted that the poll was taken before the BJP confirmed a tie-up with the AGP, a strong regional party. If AGP does well without splitting the anti-Congress vote, the BJP+ alliance can indeed form a government there.
In West Bengal, the poll confirms that there are no surprises. The ruling Trinamool Congress, which has a brute sway in the state’s vast rural areas, is likely to continue in power, albeit with a reduced victory margin than 2011. The Trinamool will get 156 seats in a House of 294, with the CPM following up in the second spot with 114 seats. If the poll is to be believed, then the CPM has indeed pulled up its numbers with a Congress that’s rapidly losing seats. The BJP is expected to get 4 seats.
In the southern state of Tamil Nadu, the ruling AIADMK might just be able to form a government with the support of independents and smaller regional parties. The Jayalalithaa-led party is poised to get 116 seats, two short of majority and the Karunanidhi-led DMK making major inroads and ending up with 101 seats. Remember, the DMK has the support of the Congress as well. If the poll becomes true, then Jayalalithaa will continue to be the chief minister of the state.