Assembly polls analysis: Hindu vote consolidation in Assam, Jaya and Mamata’s victory, BJP’s debut in Keralahttps://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/assembly-polls-2016-hindu-vote-consolidation-in-assam-jaya-and-mamatas-victory-bjps-debut-in-kerala-2818099/

Assembly polls analysis: Hindu vote consolidation in Assam, Jaya and Mamata’s victory, BJP’s debut in Kerala

Here is a post poll analysis of states showing what influenced the election results:

The 2016 Assembly polls in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry ended on May 19 with the vote counting and showed a diverse mandate in all the five states with voters making their choice as per local issues. Riding on anti-incumbency factor working against Congress regime in Assam, the BJP managed to grab majority of seats and formed a government in the state. It also gained more ground in Kerala and a made a debut in there. On the other hand, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu came out victorious defeating the opponents who formed alliances to beat both incumbent Chief Ministers. Puducherry, however, showed a different approach and gave Congress a chance and Kerala voted for change and brought LDF to power. Here is a post poll analysis of these states showing what influenced the results:

DMK needed broader alliance to consolidate anti-AIADMK vote

assam elections, west bengal elections, tamil nadu elections, election results, assembly elections results, mamata banerjee, jayalalitha, narendra modi, sarbananda sonowal

The Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll data indicate that failure to negotiate a broader alliance with smaller parties, the Congress’s weakness as an ally, and uncertainty regarding party leadership played a role in the DMK coming up short.

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BJP enters Kerala cutting into votes of Left, Congress fronts

assam elections, west bengal elections, tamil nadu elections, election results, assembly elections results, mamata banerjee, jayalalitha, narendra modi, sarbananda sonowal

Despite having a dedicated cadre base and large number of RSS shakhas for decades, Kerala has always eluded the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This might have changed with the victory of O Rajagopal as the first BJP MLA in the state. Rajagopal has been the face of the BJP in Kerala since the time of the party’s earlier version, Jana Sangh.

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Kerala: Why this vote for change was different

assam elections, west bengal elections, tamil nadu elections, election results, assembly elections results, mamata banerjee, jayalalitha, narendra modi, sarbananda sonowal

Was the decisive mandate for the LDF a categorical vote against the UDF or simply the routine switchover from one alliance to another?

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Women bought Jaya her return ticket

assam elections, west bengal elections, tamil nadu elections, election results, assembly elections results, mamata banerjee, jayalalitha, narendra modi, sarbananda sonowal

By conventional logic, the AIADMK should have not won this election. The last time an incumbent was voted back to power in Tamil Nadu was in 1984, when MGR won a re-election while undergoing treatment in the United States.

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Record Hindu swing in Assam, Cong in decline, states rising

assam elections, west bengal elections, tamil nadu elections, election results, assembly elections results, mamata banerjee, jayalalitha, narendra modi, sarbananda sonowal

An easy explanation for the Assam verdict would be “anti-incumbency,” against the 15-year Congress government led by Tarun Gogoi. Given Congress’s lackluster record of governance, this explanation is not altogether wrong.

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Poor dump Left for Trinamool, Muslims solidly behind Didi

assam elections, west bengal elections, tamil nadu elections, election results, assembly elections results, mamata banerjee, jayalalitha, narendra modi, sarbananda sonowal

Much credit for the TMC’s victory goes to three welfare schemes: Khadyasathi (rice and wheat at Rs 2/kg), Sabooj Sathi (free bicycles for schoolchildren) and Kanyashree.

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