About 85% of India’s districts exposed to extreme climate events. Here’s why

The study involved district-level assessment of extreme events using spatial and temporal modelling. It also investigated the patterns of related events and how their impacts have intensified over time.

“More than 60 per cent of districts in Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Assam are witnessing more than one extreme climate event,” the study found.

The study suggests that more than 1.47 billion people will be at risk owing to extreme climate events by 2036 and that a hyper-granular risk assessment is necessary to protect the country’s economic interests and sensitive sectors such as agriculture, industry and large-scale infrastructure.

In terms of the kind of extreme events, eastern districts were found to be more flood-prone, closely followed by the north-eastern and southern zones of India, the study said. “More than 90 per cent districts of Assam, 87 per cent districts in Bihar, 75 per cent districts in Odisha and 93 per cent districts in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are exposed to extreme floods,” the study stated.

The analysis suggested that districts in southern, western and central regions of India were exposed to agricultural and meteorological droughts, which refer to conditions such as low soil moisture and low rainfall, respectively. Districts in northern India and a few in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu were exposed to hydrological drought. This drought is marked by low water levels in streams, lakes and groundwater.

The study also found that over the last decade, there has been a fivefold increase in cyclone events in the western districts and an overall 1.5-fold rise in such events.

Swapping trend

The geospatial and climatological analysis offered evidence of the swapping trend where districts prone to one kind of extreme climate event are experiencing the exact opposite extreme event. For instance, Srikakulam, Cuttack, Guntur, and Paschim Champaran, which experienced flooding, are now witnessing a reversal from floods to droughts. Data from the study showed that the swapping trend was more prevalent in plains than in hill districts or coastal districts.

Explaining some of the factors contributing to the swapping trend, Abinash Mohanty, head of climate change and sustainability at IPE Global, and lead author of the study, said that land use and land cover change were driving or triggering some of the extreme events.

“Heat flows from the land to the ocean and oceans soak up heat. However, oceans are getting warmer and as a result, it is affecting meteorological and climatological processes,” he told The Indian Express.

“Further, natural buffers such as trees, mangroves and other natural ecosystems, which help mitigate climate extremities acting as shock absorbers, are not as available as they were earlier. Hence, the climate risk landscape is changing and expanding. The trend that 45 per cent districts are experiencing swapping trends has important implications for policymakers and decision-makers, down to the district and block level. Places which typically plan for flood will now have to also account for droughts and vice versa,” Mohanty added.