India could see nearly 16,000 more heat deaths in next 6 months: Report

Globally, the report estimates 4,51,000 excess deaths tied to the current El Niño episode, with 2,39,000 of those occurring within the six-month window covered by the forecast (September 2026–February 2027). The Sahel regions of Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad are expected to bear the heaviest burden, with roughly 66,800 additional deaths.

El Niño refers to the weather phenomenon that causes abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, suppressing the Indian monsoon and leading to higher temperatures.

The mortality estimates come from CIL’s research on how temperature relates to excess deaths, built separately for 24,378 regions worldwide to account for local climate, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity, according to Emily Grover-Kopec, the report’s co-author and a director in the climate and energy practice at Rhodium Group.

The report’s authors — Michael Greenstone, Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle and Grover-Kopec — also note that India’s death toll is expected to build over time rather than peak early.

Between December 2026 and February 2027 alone, the country was projected to see about 7,400 additional heat deaths. And unlike other regions in the report’s six-month window, India’s risk doesn’t taper off.

The researchers specifically flag India and Pakistan as northern hemisphere countries where heat-related mortality will likely keep climbing during their summer months, beyond the current forecast horizon.

Responding to queries on the projections on excess deaths in India, Grover-Kopec said, “Northern India’s winters are normally cold enough that heat rarely drives deaths there — so a warmer-than-usual winter won’t move the numbers much. Southern India is different. Normal winter temperatures there stay warm enough to cause heat deaths on their own, so abnormal warmth layered on top pushes deaths up sharply. That’s part of why India ranks 4th globally for projected heat deaths this winter, even as the sharper regional increases sit further south.”

It is estimated that India will be fourth in the list of hardest-hit countries, behind Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan.

The Southeast Asia bloc of the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia will see 19,400 combined excess deaths, it is estimated.

The authors describe the current warm spell as a “postcard from the future”, arguing that the added lead time compared to long-term climate change gives India and other nations at risk a rare opportunity to act before, rather than after, the deaths occur.