India is likely to experience a warmer winter for a second consecutive year due to the influence of a brewing El Nino over the Pacific Ocean, meteorologists said.
On Monday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a statement, titled ‘Seasonal Outlook for Temperatures’, stating that the ongoing winter season – to last till February 2019 – will record above normal sub-divisional average temperatures across all meteorological sub-divisions.
El Nino is a climatic phenomenon that occurs due to an abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean and is known to impact global weather patterns. El Nino has had a direct influence on monsoons in India – rainfall recorded during such years have remained below normal. A strong El Nino was reported during 2014 and 2015.
“The Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures (ESSTs) recorded from Pacific Ocean are above normal, but the atmosphere has not shown any significant variations correspondingly. A weak El Nino is likely to develop by the end of winter, towards February 2019. At the moment, indications are that it could be an El Nino event lasting for a short duration,” a senior official from IMD, Pune, said.
The IMD identifies Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, UP, Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana and meteorological sub-divisions Saurashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra as Core Cold Wave (CCW) zone.
Minimum temperature in 80 per cent of this zone, including Punjab, Haryana, UP Bihar, Rajasthan, Gujarat, MP and parts of Maharashtra, will remain between 0.50 degrees to 0.88 degrees above normal this winter, a Met official said. Below normal cold wave conditions will also prevail over this zone during the season, the official added.
Normal winter conditions will prevail over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the CCW zone, the official said.