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MeT dept forecasts ‘below-normal’ monsoon rainfall on El Niño concerns
To develop after June, El Niño to cast shadow southwest monsoon rainfall.
The outlook is in line with India’s Long Range Forecast by the India Meteorological Department. (AI Image)
The country is expected to receive ‘below normal’ rainfall in this year’s monsoon season, with a developing El Nino, a phenomenon in the eastern Pacific Ocean that influences global weather patterns, likely to play spoilsport, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.
India receives more than 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June-September), with July and August contributing the most. These rains are not just crucial for irrigation of large parts of India’s cropped land, it is also significant for meeting the demands of drinking water, hydroelectricity generation and groundwater recharge. Bad rainfall can impact agricultural outputs, power generation, rural incomes, and economic demand.
The early forecast by IMD, a month and a half before the start of the season, helps governments prepare for these contingencies.
In its first long-range forecast for the coming season, the IMD said monsoon rainfall over India as a whole was likely to be 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA, or the average rainfall over the 50-year period (1971-2020) during the four-month monsoon season between June and September, is 87 cm.
The expected low rainfall this year would bring an end to two back-to-back years of extremely good rainfall. In both 2024 and 2025, India as a whole received rainfall that was 108 per cent of the LPA.
Explained
Pinning hopes on aberration
There have been occasions when the monsoon rainfall has been good despite prevalence of El Nino. A case in point is 1997 when the country received over 100% in an El Nino year. 2023 also happened to be an El Nino year and it produced 95%rains. In general, however, El Nino does tend to suppress rainfall over India.
The IMD issues the first seasonal rainfall forecast in the middle of April every year and follows it up with another one in May, during which it also provides predictions for the spatial and monthly distribution of rainfall during the season.
This is the first time in at least a decade that IMD has forecast a below normal (between 90 and 96 per cent of LPA) rainfall at the first stage. In 2015 and 2016, IMD had forecast 93 per cent rains for the season (see table).
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“Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall during June-September this year will be 92 per cent of the LPA with an error margin of 5 per cent. There is some concern for the second half of the monsoon season (August and September). The El Nino is expected to gain its peak strength in July. There is about a month of lag for it to influence the Indian monsoon. So, the August and September rains are likely to be affected under this influence,” said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, while issuing the forecast in New Delhi.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to the periodic warming or cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, that influences weather worldwide. In India, its most evident impact happens on the monsoon rainfall.
A warmer-than-usual eastern Pacific Ocean, the El Nino phase, is usually correlated with suppressed rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
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