Haryana is expected to touch over 87,000 Covid-19 positive cases by September 15 and 1 lakh by the month end, as per the state health department’s estimates. The estimates project 21,790 active cases by mid-September, which will rise to 27,397 by month end.
A gap analysis of the projected figures reveal that by the month end, if the ongoing spike in cases continue, the gap between the required and available health infrastructure will narrow down and may even fall short in terms of ICU beds and ventilators in several districts.
The state conducts gap analysis every fortnight wherein the number of projected cases is estimated as per the ongoing trend of the virus spread and the health infrastructure is arranged accordingly.
A comparison between the available health infrastructure and projected figures shows that requirement appears to be surpassing the availability in several districts but the health department says that “the entire purpose of conducting the gap analysis is to visualise the requirements well in advance and make arrangements accordingly; providing best health care to the patients is on the top priority”.
Sample this: In Panipat, the state is expecting 1,737 active Covid cases for which 104 isolation beds with oxygen facility, 52 ICU beds, and 17 ventilators are expected to be required. While the district currently has 254 isolation beds with oxygen facility, and 17 ventilators available, it has only 22 ICU beds.
Similarly, Kaithal is expected to have 778 active cases by month end, requiring 47 isolation beds with oxygen facility (104 available), 23 ICU beds (14 available) and eight ventilators (nine available); while Palwal may see 478 active Covid cases by September end needing 86 isolation beds with oxygen supply (62 available), 14 ICU beds (56 available) and 5 ventilators (6 available).
The state is expecting a surge in infection in several districts including Faridabad (4,100 active cases by September end), Gurgaon (3,955), Sonipat (1,763), Panipat (1,737), Ambala (1,686), Karnal (1,612), Rewari (1,433), Hisar (1,365), Panchkula (1,313), Rohtak (1,200), and Yamunanagar (1,026).
The remaining districts too are expected to have between 400-1000 active cases by month end. They include Bhiwani (611), Fatehabad (562), Jhajjar (470), Jind (369), Kaithal (778), Kurukshetra (969), Mahendragarh (808), Nuh (255), Palwal (478), and Sirsa (835). Charkhi Dadri is the only district that is expected to have less than 73 active cases by month-end.
The gap between required and available infrastructure is narrowing in several districts, including Yamunanagar — which, as per the projections, may require 62 isolation beds with oxygen facility (92 available), 31 ICU beds (32 available) and 10 ventilators (16 available) — and Bhiwani — that is expected to require 37 isolation beds with oxygen facility (128 available), 18 ICU beds (19 available) and six ventilators (14 available).
To deal with the projected 27,397 active Covid cases by month end, the state may require 1,644 isolation beds with oxygen facility (5,952 available), 822 ICU beds (2,245 available) and 274 ventilators (1,092 available).
Haryana, last month had projected 18,226 active Covid patients across the state till September 15. The total count of active Covid-cases in Haryana was 11,371 on August 31, and 14,053 on Friday.