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Govt preparing for a second wave towards May end as lockdown eases

On Monday, the Health Ministry said the doubling time — an epidemiological metric of how long an infectious disease takes for the number of cases to double — is 7.5 days, up from the 3.4 days before the lockdown.

Govt preparing for a second wave towards May end as lockdown eases The government hopes that it will increase to 10 days by the end of the week, and 12 days by the first week of May.

Even as the Union government is looking at various options for “gradual” lifting of the lockdown post-May 3 and hopes that the doubling time of COVID-19 cases will increase to 12 days by then, sources said it is preparing for a second wave in late May or early June, as restrictions are eased.

On Monday, the Health Ministry said the doubling time — an epidemiological metric of how long an infectious disease takes for the number of cases to double — is 7.5 days, up from the 3.4 days before the lockdown. The government hopes that it will increase to 10 days by the end of the week, and 12 days by the first week of May.

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“At our worst, our doubling time was 3.4 days. We are expecting to touch 12 by April-end or early May, but after that, as we gradually start to open up — the lockdown will definitely not be lifted in one go — there will be a gradual increase (in cases). We are looking at a second peak in late May or early June, but now that awareness levels are high  and people are getting used to the idea of social distancing, masks etc, we do not anticipate the doubling time dipping to below 5 days at that point,” said a source.

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