Most exit polls give edge to BJP in Bengal, UDF in Kerala, project return of Himanta, Stalin governments

Taken together, the projections underscore a broader political pattern where regional parties such as the DMK and TMC continue to hold their core bases, even as the BJP pushes towards newer geographies.

In the past, exit polls have often missed the mark across elections in the country.

West Bengal (294 seats)

Most of the exit polls put the BJP ahead of the ruling TMC in West Bengal, where polling touched a record high in both the phases. Across projections, the Left remained largely marginal, with most estimates placing it in low single digits.

Breaking from the trend, Peoples Pulse projected a TMC win, giving the party led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee an outright majority with 177-187 seats, BJP at 95-110, Left Front at 0-1 and the Congress at 1-3.

Voters show their ink-marked fingers after casting their votes in the second phase of West Bengal Assembly elections 2026, at a polling booth in Kolkata on Wednesday. (Credits: ANI Photo)

Matrize gave the BJP 146-161 seats, and the TMC 125-140 seats. Poll Diary, too, projected a BJP victory with 142-171 seats, and the TMC at 95-110 seats. P-Marq gave the BJP 150-175 seats, against the TMC’s 118-138 seats. Chanakya Strategies predicted 150-160 seats for the BJP, and 130-140 seats for the TMC.

Praja Poll gave the BJP the highest tally among the exit polls released on Wednesday, putting it at 178-208 seats, followed by the TMC at 85-110 seats.

Across projections, the BJP’s tally changed widely — from 95 to 170 seats — highlighting both its expansion in the state and the uncertainty around the final outcome.

Kerala (140 seats)

While most of the exit polls predicted that the Congress-led UDF would win the elections, many indicated a close contest with the CPI(M)-led LDF. The LDF, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has been ruling Kerala for a decade now. Across pollsters, the BJP was projected to remain on the margins, with most giving it 0-7 seats.

Axis My India predicted that the UDF would get 44% of the vote share with 78-90 seats, CPI(M)-led LDF would get 39% vote share and 49-62 seats, and the BJP-led NDA would get 14% vote share with 0-3 seats.

P-Marq said UDF would win 71-79 seats, LDF 62-69 seats, and NDA 1-4 seats. Poll Matrix India predicted that the UDF would get up to 75 seats, LDF 60-65 seats, and NDA up to 5 seats. JVC predicted the UDF would get 72-84 seats, LDF up to 61 seats, and NDA 3-7 seats. Peoples Pulse said the UDF would win 75-85 seats, LDF 55-65 seats, and NDA up to 3 seats.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, 10 of the 11 exit polls had predicted that the LDF would retain power, with many putting its tally at 93-111 seats. The LDF had won 99 seats then.

Kerala assembly on evening of exit polls. (Express Photo)

Tamil Nadu (234 seats)

Most of the exit polls predicted an edge for the ruling DMK-led alliance led by Chief Minister M K Stalin, while two polls projected an AIADMK comeback, with Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as the most uncertain variable in the contest, potentially reshaping the state’s bipolar political contest.

Axis My India broke sharply from the broader polling trend, projecting TVK at 98-120 seats, ahead of the DMK at 92-110, and AIADMK at 22-23. The firm’s chairman, Pradeep Gupta, later said on television that TVK’s tally could also fall to around 70 seats, underscoring the unusually wide band of uncertainty around the estimate.

The widest pro-DMK projection came from Praja Poll, which gave the ruling side 148-168 seats, and the AIADMK 61-81. It gave no seats to the TVK and 1-9 to others.

P-Marq put the DMK at 125-145 seats, AIADMK at 65-85, TVK at 16-26 and others at 1-6. Matrize placed the DMK alliance at just above the majority mark at 122-132 seats, AIADMK at 87-100, TVK at 10-12 and others at 0-6. Peoples Pulse also projected a DMK advantage, giving it 125-145 seats, against 65-80 for the AIADMK, 18-24 for TVK and 2-6 for others. People’s Insight gave the DMK 120-140 seats, AIADMK 60-70, and TVK 30-40 seats.

But two exit polls pointed in the opposite direction. JVC projected a clear AIADMK victory, giving it 128-147 seats, DMK 75-95, TVK 8-15 and no seats to others. Vote Vibe also placed the AIADMK ahead, with 114-124 seats, against 103-113 for the DMK, 4-10 for TVK and none for others.

Assam (126 seats)

In Assam, exit polls projected a clear win for the ruling BJP led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, reinforcing the party’s position in the Northeast.

Axis My India predicted a sweep, forecasting 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies, and 24-36 seats for the Congress and its partners. Peoples Pulse predicted that the BJP-led alliance would get 68-72 seats, while the Congress and its allies would secure 22-26 seats. Matrize projected the BJP-led NDA at 85-95 seats, and the Congress-plus at 25-32.

JVC put the BJP-plus at 88-101 seats, and the Congress and its allies at 23-33 seats. Kamakhya Analytics predicted 85-95 seats for the BJP and its allies, and 26-39 seats for the Congress and its allies. Poll Diary gave 86-101 seats to the NDA and 15-26 for the Congress plus. People’s Insight forecast 88-96 seats for the NDA and 30-34 for the Congress.

The AIUDF and others are projected to remain in single digits.

Puducherry (30 seats)

The exit polls projected an advantage for the AINRC-led alliance, with most placing it comfortably ahead of the Congress combine.

Praja Poll gave AINRC 19-25 seats, against 6-10 for the Congress. Kamakhya Analytics gave 17-24 seats to the AINRC, and 4-7 to the Congress alliance, also factoring in a marginal presence of the TVK  (1-2). Axis My India projected a closer contest, but still placed AINRC in the lead at 16-20 seats, with Congress at 6-8, and TVK at 2-4. Peoples Pulse, too, put the AINRC ahead with 16-19 seats, while giving the Congress alliance 10-12 seats.

The counting of votes for all the five Assemblies —West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam — will be taken up on May 4. Polls were conducted in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. West Bengal saw two-phase polling on April 23 and 29.