El Nino, other factors to cause warm winter
At present, the El Nino condition — the warmer than usual sea surface temperatures recorded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean — is inching to its peak. As per the recent observations, the Nino 3.4 region remained 2.4 degrees Celsius above the threshold, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD, said.
A smoggy Friday morning at Kartavya Path in New Delhi. PTI The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a warm winter season across the country, saying minimum temperature could remain higher than normal. This follows an overall warming trend experienced globally, including India, which witnessed the third warmest November since 1901.
With February, August and November being the warmest months since 1901 in India, 2023 is on its way to becoming the warmest year ever recorded on Earth. “Due to large-scale features like the El Nino, in addition to the regional factors like western disturbances and the upcoming cyclone developing in the Bay of Bengal, there are chances of higher-than-normal minimum temperatures, making it a warm winter season in the country,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD.
Fewer and less intense cold waves could further keep the December to February period warm, he said.
At present, the El Nino condition — the warmer than usual sea surface temperatures recorded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean — is inching to its peak. As per the recent observations, the Nino 3.4 region remained 2.4 degrees Celsius above the threshold, he said.
Among other reasons likely to contribute to warm winter are the cloudy conditions caused by the western disturbances, pushing up the minimum temperature, he said.
“Further, the soon-to-develop cyclone will also cause cloudiness and the minimum temperature over the south peninsular India and eastern coastal India will remain above normal during the upcoming days,” the IMD chief said.
During December, too, no significant drop in the mercury is expected and the minimum temperature over most parts of the country, except east and northeast India, is expected to remain above normal, Mohapatra said.
Meanwhile, the impending cyclone “Michaung” in the southwest Bay of Bengal moved towards southern coastal Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu.
The IMD has issued a “red” alert and warned of extremely heavy rainfall (over 200 mm) on December 3 and 4 over coastal Andhra Pradesh. Along with coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, the cyclone shall affect Telangana and southern Odisha in the coming days, the IMD has warned.
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