The east and the northeast regions are likely to get scanty, “below normal”, rainfall, said the Met department and a “normal” monsoon has been predicted for the rest of the country.
The Met also told PTI that “normal” monsoon would be unchanged in the second stage long-range forecast.
During July, the monthly rainfall over the country is likely to be 101 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) and 94 per cent of LPA during August, both with a model error of plus or minus nine per cent.
“Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 per cent of LPA). Quantitatively, the monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 97 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent,” the India Meteorological Department said.
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A probability of 43 per cent of normal monsoon has been considered by the IMD.
“Below normal “rainfall” is when it ranges between 90-96 per cent of the LPA, while in the range between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered as “normal”. The rainfall is “deficient” when it ranges below 90 per cent and ranging between 104 and 110 per cent is read as “above normal”.
Rainfall above 110 per cent of the LPA is read as “excess” rainfall.
The IMD stated that during the next 48 hours, the conditions seem favourable for its further advancement into parts of north-eastern states. Conditions are also favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into more parts of south peninsula around June 3.
“Rainfall activity is likely to increase over parts of Maharashtra and Goa states from June 6,” the IMD said.
Last month, in the first long-range forecast, the IMD had predicted that the country is likely to receive 97 per cent of the LPA which, is read as normal monsoon with a margin of plus and minus five per cent.
“Region-wise, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 100 per cent of LPA over northwest India (comprising states of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi) 99 per cent of LPA over Central India, 95 per cent of LPA over South Peninsula and 93 per cent of LPA over east and northeast India (West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and the northeastern states) all with a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent,” it added.
The country is likely to receive “excess” rainfall in June ranging up to 111 per cent of rainfall, stated Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency. While in July and August, the rainfall is expected to be “normal” falling down to 97 and 96 per cent of the LPA respectively.
Skymet also said that monsoon is likely to revive in September which might record rainfall of 101 per cent of the LPA.