According to latest data sourced from the Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) portal, compared to October-December 2022, the number of Indian student permit applications finalised by Canada in the last quarter of 2023 dipped by nearly 42 per cent.
In October-December 2023, Canada decided (referred to as “finalised” on IRCC website, which means that decisions, both positive or negative) just 69,203 permit applications by Indian students. This marked a significant decrease from the 1.19 lakh applications processed during the same period in 2022. The decrease in total permits by Indian students finalised by Canadian authorities between 2022 (3.63 lakh) and 2023 (3.07 lakh) was 15 per cent.
Questions sent by The Indian Express to the Canadian High Commission on this drop did not elicit a response.
Study permits for Canada are issued to international students for programmes that are at least six-month long. Most permits are held by students enrolled in colleges and universities.
The decline in numbers is not entirely surprising, considering that IRCC had warned of an adverse impact on visa processing timelines in a statement dated October 19, 2023, immediately after Canada was asked to withdraw 41 of its 62 diplomats and their dependents from India.
Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller had admitted that student permits to Indians had indeed dropped in wake of strained ties between the two nations.
However, the impact of reduced staffing levels has become apparent only now, with IRCC updating its open data sets on student visa finalisation statistics for Indian applications this month. In September 2023, 18,000 applications were decided, compared to 38,000 in September 2022. Numbers from the last quarters of 2022 and 2023 show the decline: nearly 24,000 applications were decided in October 2023, 32,000 in November 2023, and 13,000 in December. In contrast, the figures stood at nearly 42,000 in October 2022; 44,000 in November 2022; and 33,000 in December 2022.
“I think the turnaround time for study permits may extend to six months and may not come by the time the college year starts. While there may be a decline in the number of applications processed, as per my experience, students are still applying for Canadian study permits,” said Viral Doshi, a Mumbai-based education consultant.
India’s decision to revoke immunity for all but 21 Canadian diplomats here stemmed from a dispute triggered by an accusation made by Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. On September 18, 2023, Trudeau accused India of involvement in the murder of prominent Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada and the allegation led to heightened tensions. Besides denying any involvement in Nijjar’s killing, India accused Canada of harbouring separatists.
In an interview to Reuters in January this year, Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller had admitted that student permits to Indians had indeed dropped in wake of strained ties between the two nations. “Our relationship with India has really halved our ability to process a lot of applications from India,” Miller had said, adding that the trend was unlikely to change in the near future.
Global overseas consultants said the diplomatic row may not be the only reason behind Canada issuing fewer student permits in future. The country recently issued a new set of restrictive rules for international students aspiring to pursue studies in Canada.
Recently, Canada also announced a two-year limit on the number of new international student visas issued. The restriction, according to Minister Miller, is to “stabilise new growth for a period of two years”.
“Rapid increase in the number of international students arriving in Canada also puts pressure on housing, healthcare and other services. As we work to better protect international students from bad actors and support sustainable population growth in Canada, the government is moving forward with measures to stabilise the number of international students in Canada,” an official statement had said.
“For 2024, the cap is expected to result in approximately 3,60,000 approved study permits, a decrease of 35% from 2023,” an official IRCC statement had stated.
Piyush Kumar, regional director, South Asia and Mauritius, IDP Education, a global overseas education consultant, said, “The market in Canada has softened. Students are currently in a wait-and-watch mode. If you look at IRCC data, study permit applications have dropped. This is also what they want. Even if more students applied, they would still issue only limited study permits.”
Global overseas consultants said the diplomatic row may not be the only reason behind Canada issuing fewer student permits in future. 
Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller had admitted that student permits to Indians had indeed dropped in wake of strained ties between the two nations.
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