Bihar Election 2025 Exit Polls: Axis My India predicts 121-141 seats for NDA, Today’s Chanakya gives it 160+

At the close of polling on Tuesday in the Bihar Assembly elections, the state not only notched its highest-ever voter turnout, but also saw women set a new record in voting. Against the overall turnout of a record 66.91%, the voting percentage among women voters was 71.6%, as much as 8.8 percentage points more than the 62.8% turnout among men and the largest ever gap.

In terms of absolute numbers too, women appear to have out-voted men in Bihar, which would be a first for the state.

After the Election Commission’s (EC) Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in the state, which incidentally saw more deletions among women voters than men, Bihar had 3.93 crore men electors and 3.51 women voters – a gap of 42.34 lakh. While the EC has not released data on the absolute number of men and women who voted across the two phases in Bihar, the turnout percentages shared by it indicate that 2.52 crore women voted compared to 2.47 crore men – a difference of 5 lakh. Read more

Today’s Chanakya projected BJP a major victory with 160 seats, RJD 77 and others six seats.

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The poll agency Axis My India says 22% of voters in Bihar want Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister while 34% want Tejashwi Yadav.

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As per the poll agency Axis My India, NDA is likely to gain 43% vote share, MGB 41% and JSP 4%.

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The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is likely to retain power in Bihar, as per Axis My India’s prediction published today. The poll agency has predicted NDA to win 121 to 141 seats, MGB 98 to 118, JSP 0 to 2 seats

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Axis My India's predictions will out shortly and the poll agency says NDA is poised to win 43%, Mahagatbandhan 41%, JSP 4% and Others 12%.

While 9 exit polls suggested a clean sweep by JD(U)-led NDA in Bihar, the predictions of Chanakya and Axis are awaited today.

Exit Polls, BJP national spokesperson Ajay Alok calls Opposition leaders "delusional". "When this happens, the person starts imagining himself winning 99 seats, becoming the CM, and even forming the government... On the 18th, he should take an oath that he will return everything he has stolen and all the money he has earned and promise not to repeat such mistakes again..."

RJD leader and Mahagathbandhan CM face Tejashwi Yadav has expressed fear of slowing down the vote counting. "They [BJP] will attempt to slow down the counting of votes and will spread fear in District Headquarters."

"They will not do anything where a bomb blast takes place. But they will take out a military flag march across all districts in Bihar to murder democracy so that there is fear among the people. In 2020 elections, too, people voted for change. But there was foul play and there was a margin of just 12,000 votes. This time, we shall clean sweep. Mahagathbandhan will register a massive victory... Our people won't be scared. They will stop vote chori, protect democracy and will do whatever sacrifices are needed to be made. But foul play will not be allowed this time."

Congress leader Digvijaya Singh said the Bihar electoral contest was even and if NDA wins, it would mean manipulation of the voting figures. "I don't trust exit polls, however, when I had gone to Bihar... I didn't feel that there was any one-sided contest. There was an even contest. Discussion were being done that how much votes Prashant Kishor's party and AIMIM would cut. Some exit polls are showing 180 seats, some 160 seats (to NDA). If the NDA wins more than 140 seats, then it would be only due to manipulated voter lists and manipulated EVMs," he said.

Tejashwi Yadav has alleged exit polls showed "fake results" to pressure polling officials.

RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav has alleged that the exit polls, which projected an NDA victory in Bihar, were conducted at the direction of the BJP's top leadership.

Acclaimed pollster Today's Chanakya said it will release the results of its survey today.

Chanakya Strategies projected the NDA to win 130-138 seats, and MGB to win 100-108 seats in its exit polls for Bihar Assembly elections 2025.

Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll projected NDA’s win with 145-160 seats, while Mahagathbandhan is likely to get 73-91 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj failed to impress in the party’s debut assembly election, averaging just 0 to 3 seats in the Dainik Bhaskar exit poll.

According to the exit poll results by People’s Pulse, NDA is likely to win from 133-148 seats while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to win from 75-101 seats. Jan Suraaj, as per People’s Pulse, is likely to win from 0-5 seats. P-Marq also had similar predictions in its exit poll, projecting NDA to win 142-162 seats, MGB likely to win 80-98 seats, and Jan Suraaj likely to win 1-4 seats.

Major exit polls have predicted a JDU-led NDA win with a clear majority in Bihar. Out of the total 243 seats in Bihar, Matrize predicted that the JDU-BJP alliance is expected to sweep the polls with 147-167 seats, while the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan is expected to win around 70-90 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, according to the exit poll, is likely to win on 0-2 seats.

Bihar Assembly elections concluded with a voter turnout of 66.91%, the highest recorded in the State since 1951, the Election Commission said on Tuesday.

Turnout among male voters was 62.8% and amongst female voters it was 71.6%, according to data shared by the EC.

In the second phase of the Assembly polls, the state recorded a voter participation of 68.76%, with 74.03% of female electors and 64.1% of male electors appearing at the booths.

Voter participation in the First Phase (on November 6) was 65.08%.

Former Deputy CM and BJP candidate from Katihar, Tarkishore Prasad, said, "These exit polls are not surprising because CM Nitish Kumar has transformed Bihar since 2005... We trust the voters of Bihar. We trust the development work we have done... The NDA and the BJP will certainly hoist the flag of victory..."--ANI

As per the Bihar CEO’s office, the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal recorded the highest turnout with an average of 73.77%, driven by polling in Kishanganj (76.26%), Katihar (75.23%), Purnia (73.79%), and Araria (67.79%) districts.

Magadh recorded the lowest average turnout at 63.30%, followed by Shahabad at 63.96%. These are considered as the Mahagathbandhan’s stronghold regions.

Read the full report here

On exit polls for the Bihar Assembly Election, BJP MP Jagadambika Pal said, "We have been saying since the beginning that the NDA will form the government with a 2/3rd majority... The high voter turnout was proof that there is a pro-cumbency in Bihar... The results would be even better than the Exit Polls."--ANI

According to exit poll data from Matrize, 65 per cent women voters voted for NDA and 27 per cent voted for the Mahagathbandhan.

As per opinion polls conducted by two more agencies -- DV Research and TIF Research -- the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will retain power in Bihar.

DV Research:

NDA 137–152

MGB 83–98

JSP 2–4

Others 1–8

TIF Research:

NDA -- 145–163

MGB -- 76–95

JSP -- 0–0

Others -- 3–6

Nine exit polls cited by The Indian Express have projected the National Democratic Alliance to win the Bihar Assembly election 2025.

Here is a summary of the projections:

Chanakya Strategies has projected the NDA to win 130-138 seats, and MGB to win 100-108 seats in its exit polls for Bihar Assembly elections 2025. Other parties are likely to win 3-5, while Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party is not expected to win any seats

Another opinion poll conducted by P-Marq has projected an NDA victory in the Bihar elections 2025 with 142-162 seats. So far, seven exit polls, cited by The Indian Express have projected the NDA to win.

Party - Seats

NDA - 142-162

MGB - 80-98

JSP - 1-4

OTH - 0-3

As per the exit polls conducted by the ABP, the National Democratic Alliance is projected to win 133-148 seats, MGB 87-102 and Others 3-5.

According to the exit polls by JVC, the National Democratic Alliance is likely to retain power in Bihar with 135-150 constitiues in its 243-seat Assembly.

The projections are as follows:

NDA 135 - 150

INDIA 88- 103

JSP 0 - 1

Others 3-6

In its exit poll, People's Insight has projected a victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar Assembly election 2025.

People's Insight's predictions are as below, as reported by Hindustan Times

NDA:

Mahagathbandhan:

As per exit polls conducted by Dainik Bhaskar for Bihar Elections 2025, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win 145-160 seats, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) bloc is projected to win 73-91 seats, and others are likely to win 5-7 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is expected to win 0-3 seats.

According to two exit polls conducted, the National Democractic Alliance (NDA) is likely to form the government in Bihar.

As per exit polls by Matrize for the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 have projected the NDA to win 147-167, Mahagathbandhan 70-90, Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party 0-2, and Others 2-8.

Another exit polls conducted by People's Pulse has given NDA 133-159 seats, MGB 75-101, JSP 0-5 and Others 2-8.

The exit polls are expected to be released after 6:30 pm.

In 2015, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) emerged as the largest party in Bihar Assembly election with 80 seats. In terms of vote share, the BJP led with nearly 24.42% per cent of the votes, as per data from the Election Commission.

Party - Seats

RJD - 80

JD(U) - 71

BJP - 53

INC - 27

IND - 4

Bihar in the second phase of its 2025 Assembly elections recorded the highest voter participation in its history with 67.14% voters turning up to the booths till 5 pm, the Chief Electoral Officer, Bihar notified on Tuesday.

Here is a breakdown of the district-wise data:

Paschim Champaran - 69.02

Purvi Champaran - 69.31

Sheohar - 67.31

Sitamarhi - 65.29

Madhubani - 61.79

Supaul - 70.69

Araria - 67.79

Kishanganj - 76.26

Purnia - 73.79

Katihar - 75.23

Bhagalpur - 66.03

Banka - 68.91

Kaimur (Bhabhua) - 67.22

Rohtas - 60.69

Arwal - 63.06

Jahanabad - 64.36

Aurangabad - 64.48

Gaya - 67.50

Nawada - 57.11

Jamui - 67.81

In 2020, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) emerged as the largest party in Bihar Assembly election with 75 seats.

It was followed by the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) with 74, Janata Dal (United) with 43, the Indian National Congress with 19, and the Communist Party Of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation with 12.

The All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won in 5 constituencies for the 243-seat Assembly.

The exit polls are surveys which are conducted by major media houses and independent agencies immediately after voting ends.

The most notable agencies conducting exit poll surveys are:

The counting of votes for Bihar Assembly election 2025 will take place on November 14 and the results are expected to be announced on the same day.