Even by a simple model, at least 14-29 lakh coronavirus cases and between 37,000 and 71,000 deaths have been averted, said the Centre Friday, highlighting how India has been able to contain the virus through early implementation of nationwide lockdown.
In a routine press briefing to apprise media about the coronavirus situation in the country, Praveen Srivastava, a senior officer with the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), said the government has shared publicly available data with independent experts to model the impact of lockdown, adding that “in pandemic like this there are no parallels to compare”.
“Two independent economists have estimated that we have averted 23 lakh cases and 68,000 deaths. According to some retired scientists about 15.9 lakh cases and 51,000 deaths have been avoided, my ministry worked with Indian Statistical Institute and found 20 lakh cases were averted,” said Srivastava. “The way we are opening up economy, the way people are sensitised, it will have significant impact,” he added.
Meanwhile, member of NITI Aayog Dr V K Paul said that the growth rate of the virus was controlled by India. “You can imagine how it would have been if growth had continued at 22 per cent. The doubling time has come down from 3.5 days to 13.5 days because of the lockdown,” said Dr Paul.
Top points from the Government of India coronavirus media briefing:
# Till 1 pm today, over 27 lakh tests done; this is the fourth day when we have done over one lakh tests in one day, 85,442 in govt labs, 18,287 in private labs: ICMR
# I congratulate all of you for the landmark of Ayushman Bharat completing 10 million admissions; this is unprecedented in the history of the nation: Dr V K Paul
# Till date, 40,000 health and wellness centres commissioned under Ayushman Bharat: Dr V K Paul
# Honourable PMO India took the lockdown decision early and timely, unlike other countries who paid the price of being late. it was a gadded proactive and preemptive measure: Dr V K Paul
# We took the decision to lockdown to control the chain of transmission of the virus to the extent possible; it has been implemented by the people of India very effectively, its an example to the world: Dr V K Paul
# Growth rate of new cases till April 3 was increasing at the rate of 22.6 per cent, behaviour of the virus was exponential. After April 4 there is clear slowing of the growth and then it settled at 5.5 per cent from 15-18-22 per cent: Dr V K Paul member
# The growth rate of the virus was controlled by the country; you can imagine how it would have been if growth had continued at 22 per cent: Dr V K Paul
# Doubling time has come down from 3.5 days to 13.5 days because of the lockdown: Dr V K Paul
# The effect of Lockdown 2 was visible till May 15; deaths were increasing at a faster rate. There is clear difference between pre and post lockdown: Dr V K Paul
# We have shared publicly available data with independent experts to model the impact of lockdown. But in pandemic like this there are no parallels to compare: Praveen Srivastava
# Even by a simple model 14-29 lakh cases have been averted, deaths averted vary between 37000 and 71000: Praveen Srivastava