Voting ends in Assam, Kerala and Puducherry: What’s at stake from passports, hat-tricks to statehood demand

Here’s everything you need to know for the states and the Union Territory going to polls today.

Why the assembly elections 2026 matter?

The stakes are simple, and enormous. These elections will serve as a key political test for both national and regional parties ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2029. Think of them as a midterm report card — parties study the results, adjust strategies, and either double down or pivot before the big national contest. It is also a sort of prestige battle for the BJP as well as the Congress, especially in Assam.

A total of 296 assembly seats across the three regions are going to polls in a single phase, with thousands of candidates in the fray and crores of voters expected to exercise their franchise. Add Tamil Nadu and West Bengal – which vote later this month, and 2026 could well shape up to be the most consequential state election cycle since 2021.

Assam: Identity, Passports, and AI Deepfakes Collided

Assam is the headliner of today’s exercise. In the previous election held in 2021, the BJP-led NDA retained power with 75 seats, with Himanta Biswa Sarma becoming Chief Minister for the first time. Now, the BJP is on the hunt for a third straight term.

The poll war is fundamentally a contest between two towering personalities — Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is contesting from his Jalukbari stronghold and Gaurav Gogoi, the Congress state president and son of former CM Tarun Gogoi, is contesting the Jorhat seat. Gogoi also leads the revived Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASoM)— a six-party Opposition bloc.

The battle, which started as a political one, has become personal, with the wives of these leaders now involved. We are getting to that.

But first, the issues of the voters — unemployment, corruption, and fair investigation of the late singer Zubeen Garg’s death were the top concerns among the public. Floods have been a recurring nightmare too.

Women voters are another key factor, with the BJP’s Orunodoi cash-transfer scheme and Swanirbhar Naari programme aimed at them.

But the campaign didn’t stay on those issues for long. It took a sharp, personal turn.

The passport war

Here’s how a political battle turned personal. CM Himanta Biswa Sarma levelled allegations against Congress state chief Gaurav Gogoi and his British wife, who briefly worked in the neighbouring country. Then Congress struck back hard.

In a series of high-profile press conferences between April 5 and 6, Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera and MP Gaurav Gogoi alleged that Sarma’s wife holds passports from three different countries — the UAE, Antigua and Barbuda, and Egypt. The Opposition also accused Sarma’s family of undisclosed Dubai properties and a Wyoming-based company, calling the alleged holdings a “strategic escape plan”.

Sarma and his wife have denied the allegations. They called the documents AI-generated fakes, claimed they were sourced from a Pakistani social media operation, and filed FIRs against Pawan Khera. Assam Police landed at Khera’s Delhi residence. This, the Congress said, was nothing short of “intimidation”.

Before this controversy, Sarma and the BJP had alleged that Gaurav Gogoi and his wife Elizabeth Colburn had Pakistan links. They also raised questions over Colburn’s Pakistan visit to Pakistan and her employment with a Pakistan-based think tank. Sarma had further questioned the nature of a 2013 visit to Pakistan by Gaurav Gogoi.

Opinion polls currently favour the BJP. The BJP-led coalition is likely to emerge victorious on 96-98 seats, as per an IANS-Matrize survey, while the Chanakya survey gave them an edge over 83-90 seats. ASoM, meanwhile, was projected to win 26-28 and 30-36 seats, respectively, by the two opinion polls.

Kerala: The Left’s Hat-trick Bid Against History

Kerala is where political history is genuinely on the line. The LDF under Pinarayi Vijayan made history in 2021 by becoming the first alliance to be re-elected in Kerala, breaking the state’s long-standing trend of alternating between the LDF and UDF. A third straight term would be unprecedented.

The LDF, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has highlighted its 10-year governance record, pointing towards infrastructure development, welfare schemes and crisis management. The government is also highlighting Kerala’s feat as the first state to declare itself “extreme poverty-free” last year. The Congress-led United Democratic Front, helmed by Opposition leader VD Satheesan, is claiming anti-incumbency and projecting itself as the force for renewal.

Satheesan has been particularly aggressive on corruption charges and promises of governance reset.

Then there’s the BJP’s Rajiv Chandrasekar, the party’s Kerala state president and a former Union minister, who is fighting from Nemom. The BJP has never won a Kerala assembly seat but is hoping this is the cycle it finally cracks the code.

What might just not sit well with voters in Kerala is the mutual distrust between LDF and UDF as these two fronts are formally allies at the national ‘INDIA’ bloc level. Each alliance accused the other of colluding with the BJP and, therefore, compromising on the state’s secular ideals they claim to embody.

When Rahul Gandhi held his first major campaign speech in Thiruvananthapuram on March 7, the LDF came out publicly to slam him. This proved that the Left-Congress cold war in Kerala is very much alive.

The LDF campaign was largely centred around Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who emerged as the principal face of the front.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s campaign featured a heavy national-leadership presence, ranging from PM Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to multiple BJP Chief Ministers in just three weeks of campaigning.

What Kerala opinion polls say?

Opinion polls have projected a close finish for the UDF and LDF. As per the Matrize poll, LDF is expected to win around 62-68 seats, while the UDF may secure 67-73 seats, both potentially short of the 71-seat majority. If that holds, Kerala’s result could be determined by small parties and independents.

Puducherry: A long-pending statehood demand

Puducherry operates differently from any other place going to polls today. It is a Union Territory, which means the Lieutenant Governor, who is appointed by the Centre, holds significant constitutional authority over its elected government. This structural quirk is at the very heart of the campaign.

In a Union territory, the Lieutenant Governor is supreme according to a Supreme Court order. CM N Rangasamy of the AINRC, the four-time chief minister heading the NDA government since 2021, says this reality drives his political pragmatism about staying allied with the BJP. Without the Centre’s backing, he argues, development funds would dry up. The Opposition calls it a convenient excuse for surrendering local autonomy.

The statehood demand has dominated this election. Rangasamy faces anti-incumbency over issues like the demand for statehood, the privatisation of the electricity department, and youth unemployment.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi alleged that the Puducherry government is “imposed from Delhi” and does not reflect the will of the people, pledging full statehood if voted in.

The most gripping contest of this election is in Thattanchavady, where Rangasamy faces former Chief Minister and current Lok Sabha MP V Vaithilingam of Congress. They were once in the same party. In a triangular contest, even a margin of 25 to 50 votes could prove decisive.

The Congress-DMK alliance has been plagued by internal trouble all season. Seat-sharing talks dragged on until after nominations closed. Despite the Congress promising to take action against rebels, many of them are still in the fray, dimming the prospects for its alliance partners.

A wild card has emerged in actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which is contesting all 30 seats. In a major pre-election rally on April 4, Vijay slammed both alliances, describing the NDA as “tired” and the SPA as “confused”, while pledging to pursue full statehood for Puducherry. Even winning 2-3 seats could allow TVK to play kingmaker.