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Thursday, July 02, 2020

As lockdown 4.0 nears end, curve still ahead of projections

India reported the highest daily case load of 7,466 on Friday, taking the total number of cases to 1,65,799; according to a projection the Centre had shared with states last month, India was expected to reach 1,65,000 cases by May 31.

By: Express News Service | New Delhi | Updated: May 30, 2020 7:34:34 am
In the last 24 hours, 175 deaths have taken place, taking the total number of deaths to 4,706.

As Lockdown 4.0 nears its end, data show that India’s Covid curve is still ahead of the projections shared with states last month, based on which the decision to extend the lockdown to May 17 was taken. There has been one more lockdown since — that comes to an end on May 31.

India reported the highest daily case load of 7,466 on Friday, taking the total number of cases to 1,65,799; according to a projection the Centre had shared with states last month, India was expected to reach 1,65,000 cases by May 31. The current doubling time is 14.63 days.

The projections were shared on April 26 during a meeting chaired by cabinet secretary Rajiv Gauba and attended by state officials.

According to the projections, on May 15, at the peak of the lockdown advantage with a doubling time of 15 days, India would hit 65,000 cases — in reality, on May 15, India had 81,970 cases. The projection had shown that on May 31 and June 15, the numbers will stand at 1,65,122 (9,346 new cases per day) and 3,95,727 (22,400 new cases per day), respectively, after two successive doubling times of 12 days each.

Read| Lockdown 5.0: States to decide on malls, restaurants

After that, all the projections were done at a doubling time of 10 days. So on June 30, the cases were projected to stand at 11,22,839 cases (75,415 new cases per day) and on July 15, the projection was 31,85,952 cases (2,13,982 new cases per day). On July 31, the projected case count is 96,90,715 (6,50,869 new cases per day) and on August 15, it is projected to stand at 2,74,96,513 (18,46,781 new cases per day).

In the last 24 hours, 175 deaths have taken place, taking the total number of deaths to 4,706. The number of cases under active medical supervision is 89,987. So far, a total of 71,105 people have been cured. In the last 24 hours, 3,414 patients were found cured. This takes the total recovery rate to 42.89 per cent. In the last 24 hours, 1,21,702 samples were tested, taking the total to 34,83,838.

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