Country-level projections suggest that adult physical inactivity in India could increase by about two percentage points by 2050. (Image generated using Google Gemini)
Rising temperatures due to climate change could drive millions across the globe into physical inactivity by 2050 by limiting their activity outdoors, suggests a modelling study published in The Lancet Global Health journal. In India, numbers are projected to be higher than the global average.
Physical inactivity is already a major global health problem, with about one in three adults failing to meet World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines for weekly exercise. With projections showing lower activity patterns, the risk of cardiovascular disease, Type 2 diabetes, certain cancers and mental health disorders, all of which shorten life expectancy, increases.
The new study means there will be hundreds of thousands of premature deaths and billions of dollars in lost productivity.
What the study means for India
In India, the projected increase in inactivity is expected to be above the global average. “The broader message is that heat is not only a matter of comfort. It is capable of shifting population behaviour at scale, with important implications for non-communicable disease risk, health systems and the economy,” Dr Christian García-Witulski, a Research Fellow at the Lancet Countdown Latin America and a Professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina, told The Indian Express.
Researchers found that each additional month with an average temperature above 27.8C would increase physical inactivity by an average of 1.5 percentage points globally, with an even higher increase of 1.85 points in low and middle-income countries.
Country-level projections suggest that adult physical inactivity in India could increase by about two percentage points by 2050. “In addition, our country-level mortality projection attributable to physical inactivity in India is 10.62 deaths per 100,000 people. The projected annual economic cost for India is approximately US$401.9 million. At the broader regional level, South Asia shows median mortality rates attributable to physical inactivity of 3.9, 4.7, and 5.1 deaths per 100,000 across the low-, intermediate-, and high-emissions pathways, respectively. Overall, this suggests that India is part of a region where the health burden linked to climate-driven physical inactivity may be substantial,” says Dr García-Witulski.
A question of inequality
The strongest effects of climate change are concentrated in low- and middle-income settings and in warmer parts of the world, where adaptive capacity is often more limited. “This means the burden is likely to be unevenly distributed, with more vulnerable populations facing the greatest risks,” adds Dr García-Witulski.
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“Using data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022, we found that each additional month with a mean temperature above 27.8°C is associated with a 1.44 percentage-point increase in adult physical inactivity globally and a 1.85 percentage-point increase in low- and middle-income countries. When we project these effects to 2050 under different climate pathways, we estimate that climate change could lead to 0.47 to 0.70 million additional premature deaths per year and international-dollar productivity losses of 2.40 to 3.68 billion annually,” says Dr García-Witulski.
The model predicts the biggest increase in inactivity to be hotter regions such as Central America, the Caribbean, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, and Equatorial Southeast Asia, where inactivity could rise by more than 4 percentage points per month spent above 27.8°C.
However, the authors highlight that these are modelled projections, based on self-reported activity surveys and only account for temperature changes. So, there are uncertainties about real-world impacts.
How to set physical activity targets despite climate change
The authors say their results suggest that solution-oriented models to climate change need to be devised soon. These could include designing cooler cities, providing affordable air-conditioned places to exercise, provisioning for shaded public areas, giving clear advisories on how to stay safe in extreme heat and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Tree canopies, green roofs and facades lower ambient temperatures. Walking and cycling paths that are well-shaded allow for active transit without over-exposure to UV radiation or extreme heat. Lighter-coloured materials for pavements reduce heat absorption (albedo-friendly) and permeable materials help manage water runoff from flooding.
Fitness experts suggest a portfolio of activities rather than relying on one. If a heatwave prevents outdoors, have an indoor option ready with body weight exercises, strength training and indoor routines.
Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues .
Professional Background
Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature.
Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO.
Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives.
Awards and Recognition
Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.”
Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025)
1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care
"Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease.
Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose.
2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series)
Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs.
"For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune.
3. Lifestyle & Wellness News
"They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions.
At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents.
4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure
For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics.
Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far.
Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership
Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions.
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