No Muqaddar for Sikandar: Why even Salman Khan can’t pull Bollywood out of its crisis and series of flops

The industry is currently striving to re-establish its stronghold after a tepid 2024. The historical drama Chhaava headlined by Vicky Kaushal may have emerged as the top-grosser in the first quarter of 2025 with a domestic earning of Rs 585.2 crore in two months (Rs 806.97 crore worldwide; sacnilk.com), but a spectre of gloom persists. So do the murmurs about the industry hitting a downturn. The old and established order of the Hindi film industry has crumbled. A superstar can’t guarantee a big opening. The tried-and-tested formulas have gone kaput, leaving filmmakers floundering. The audience, spoilt with choices, thanks to the expanding base of streamers, are asking for better content and cinematic experiences.

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The year 2025 suffered a shaky start as several major movies, including Kangana Ranaut’s Emergency, Shahid Kapoor’s Deva and Ajay Devgn’s Azaad failed to attract critical and commercial success. Though Akshay Kumar’s Sky Force recorded a domestic net collection of Rs 112.75 crore (worldwide collection Rs 149 crore; sacnilk.com), its theatrical run was tainted by allegations of block corporate bookings to create the impression of a big opening. Jaat marked Sunny Deol’s return to the big screen on April 10 after the spectacular success of Gadar 2 (2023), with weekend collections having crossed Rs 49 crore, but its business saw a sharp decline on Monday. Touted to be the fifth top-grosser of the year, John Abraham’s The Diplomat took 33 days to earn Rs 50.47 crore worldwide (sacnilk.com).

The audience, spoilt with choices, thanks to the expanding base of streamers, are asking for better content and cinematic experiences.
(Express Photo by Amit Chakravarty)

Decline in Earnings

The recent annual box-office report card for 2024 by Ormax shows the depth of the problem. Sanket Kulkarni, Head, Business Development (theatrical), Ormax Media, says: “The Hindi film industry experienced a 13 per cent decline in box-office revenue in 2024 — dropping from Rs 5,380 crore in 2023 to Rs 4,679 crore in 2024. Notably, 31 per cent of this revenue came from (Hindi) dubbed South Indian films, concealing a significant 37 per cent decline in earnings from original Hindi content.”

After a good run in 2023 with Jawan, Pathaan, Animal and Gadar 2, the industry slumped in 2024. “If you take out two 2024 releases from the equation — Stree 2: Sarkate Ka Aatank and Pushpa 2: The Rule — it’s a scary year,” says Akkshay Rathie, director at Vidharbha Exhibitors. Stree 2, which is about a headless misogynistic monster kidnapping women who dare be ‘progressive’, earned Rs 698 crore in India (source: Ormax) while Pushpa 2 (Hindi) registered an all time high collection for a Hindi movie at Rs 889 crore (Ormax). “Still, in a year that has 52 weeks, only two movies helping the industry sail through is not a great sign,” says Rathie. Incidentally, for the industry to thrive, there should be “around a dozen tentpole releases, across languages, in a year as well as a bunch of moderate successes,” he says.

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As the industry has become increasingly obsessed with creating perceptions of success with paid reviews, inflated opening day numbers and fudged up collection figures, focussing on what matters — such as compelling storytelling, originality and creativity — has taken a backseat. Writer-director Anurag Kashyap recently declared he was leaving Mumbai, fed up over the industry’s star-centric ways and scant regard for creativity. Recently, director Hansal Mehta wrote on X that “Hindi cinema needs a reset.” Last week, filmmaker Vivek Ranjan Agnihotri wrote an open letter to Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal saying “the industry’s decay is evident.”

The question regarding the industry’s struggle with uncertainties was raised earlier this month at the trailer launch of Raid 2 in which Devgn reprises his role as an honest income-tax officer going after a powerful politician. The actor-producer said: “It’s not like only Bollywood films are not working today. This is the case with films all over the world… Right now we are struggling, and not very sure what the audience would come in for.”

The Hindi entertainment industry has hit rough patches in the past, especially in the ’80s and the ’90s, following a dip in single-screen footfall caused by a burgeoning video rental business. Subsequently, multiplexes threw up other unique challenges as well as created opportunities to tell compelling non-mainstream stories. Streaming services, in recent years, too, offered a platform to showcase off-beat movies before leaning on star-backed projects. At present, the industry’s crisis has dialled up due to an absence of both engrossing blockbusters as well as riveting non-mainstream movies.

What the Audience Wants

Things were different a decade ago. Kulkarni says: “Between 2015 and 2019, the Hindi film industry experienced steady growth, with box-office collections increasing each year and reaching a peak of Rs 4,831 crore in 2019. However, the pandemic in 2020-21 led to a sharp decline, with revenues falling below Rs 1,000 crore. The industry began recovering in 2022, culminating in a record-high Rs 5,380 crore in 2023, the highest-grossing year for Hindi cinema.”

The world of entertainment has witnessed several changes in recent years. “While some films have thrived in this new landscape, the industry must align itself with shifting audience expectations by offering fresh, compelling content that stands out in an increasingly competitive market,” says Sanjeev Kumar Bijli, executive director, PVR INOX Ltd. Instead of calling the current state a “slump” in business, Bijli believes that the industry is “undergoing a transformation driven by evolving audience preferences”.

“Indian viewers today are more discerning, valuing authentic storytelling over mindless big-budget spectacles. While star-studded films still generate initial buzz, smaller, content-driven movies like Laapataa Ladies (2023), 12th Fail (2023), and Srikanth (2024) have proven that relatable narratives resonate with audiences,” Bijli says.

Long Post :
Hindi Cinema Needs a Reset

For those predicting doom for Bollywood—pause. The industry isn’t dying. It’s waiting to be disrupted. The problem isn’t the audience losing interest. It’s that investment is being funneled into the safe, the recycled, the formulaic.

The…

— Hansal Mehta (@mehtahansal) March 10, 2025

In the aftermath of the pandemic, viewing patterns have undergone significant changes. “The pandemic disrupted production schedules and altered viewing habits, but the industry is now grappling with larger systemic changes. The audience today is more selective. OTT platforms have provided them with diverse entertainment options, raising the bar for theatrical releases,” says Bijli. On the audience’s behaviour, Devgn said: “We are adapting to the change in audience preferences and that’s how we are also changing. But nobody is very sure as yet.”

The fact that the industry is “navigating a period of transformation” and “increasing competition from diverse entertainment formats”, believes Ashish Saksena, COO — Cinemas, BookMyShow, shows how it is geared towards “delivering fresh narratives, high-quality content and immersive experiences to re-establish its stronghold”. Amidst these changes, the silver lining, says Saksena, is that theatres continue to be preferred destinations for large-scale movies and shared experiences.

Ormax Media’s ‘Sizing the Cinema’ report points out that Hindi theatregoers watched an average of 4.6 films in 2019, a number that declined to three in 2023. “These metrics indicate that moviegoing among the Hindi audience is increasingly becoming an event-driven activity rather than a habit, resulting in a steady decline in theatrical engagement,” says Kulkarni. The cost of multiplex tickets and snacks is often cited as the primary reason why it has become an “event-driven activity.”

The box-office performances of Bade Miyan Chote Miyan, Baby John and Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha are proof that star-power does not translate into crowd-pullers without good content.

The Stars are Down

‘Content is king’ may be a universally accepted truth but ironically ‘weak content’ is often cited as the primary reason for a film’s poor show. Cases in point are Sikandar and Jaat. At the recently-held annual conference of Screenwriters Association (SWA) in Mumbai, consensus was that while fresh content can pull the industry out of this vortex, its over-dependence on stars has been an obstacle. Remembering her early years in the industry, producer-writer Kanika Dhillon says: “It was made clear to me that it’s a star-driven system. The decision regarding a mainstream film depended on the surety that a certain star will ensure a certain kind of footfall. That has gone for a toss (today).”

The box-office performances of movies with A-listers in 2024 — including Bade Miyan Chote Miyan featuring Akshay Kumar and Tiger Shroff; Varun Dhawan’s Baby John; and Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha featuring Devgn and Tabu — are proof that star-power does not translate into crowd-pullers without good content. The heavy dependence on stars often means lesser amount spent on writers. “Out of 25 remakes made post-pandemic, 23 are flops. Everyone has realised, the only way to succeed is to create original content. That will not come from a director or producer but from a writer,” said Niren Bhatt, writer of Stree 2 and Sky Force, at the SWA meet.

The Regional Edge

With Hindi movies floundering at the box-office, there is an increased competition from dubbed South Indian films. Bijli says, “The Tamil, Telugu and Malayalam film industries have consistently captivated audiences nationwide through their strong storytelling, rooted authenticity, and innovative filmmaking. Films like KGF: Chapter 2 (2022), RRR (2022), Kantara (2022) and Pushpa: The Rise (2021) have transcended linguistic barriers to become nationwide sensations.”

While Hindi cinema “losing mass connect” has been a major concern, “the biggest challenge”, according to prominent producer Siddharth Roy Kapur, has been “finding a story that would appeal to the wider section of the audience”. The Dangal co-producer says: “We (Hindi filmmakers) have to cater to a much wider audience. The regional industry has the benefit of catering to one market. We have to go back to the basics — go back to telling stories that we understand and believe in.”

Pushpa 2 dominated the Hindi box office as well.

There are many reasons for the audience of Hindi films feeling alienated. Rathie says, “The setting (of a Hindi film) might be small town India but the storytelling is urban. The audience in Tier 2 and 3 towns enjoys Salman’s shirt coming off more compared to the social cause-driven narrative in an Ayushmann Khurrana film. To be able to cater to them, we have to be aware of their realities.” He adds that the ratio of films made for urban audience is around 90 per cent while 10 per cent is for the masses. To fix the scenario, the industry’s key stakeholders have to take relevant steps instead of sitting on the fence. He finds it worrisome that Ranbir Kapoor hasn’t had a release since Animal (2023); Ranveer Singh hasn’t appeared in a lead role in two years; and after his last release Dunki (2023), Shah Rukh Khan’s next, King, is yet to go on floors.

To turn around Bollywood’s fortunes might entail taking a few risks. Actor Saif Ali Khan says, “You want to take risks but at the same time people don’t want to lose money. You want to be successful in giving the audience what they would enjoy. However, if you repeat yourself, then that can be destructive. It’s a challenge to figure out how we can give the audience what they really want.”

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The Future is Disruption

What might help is content that is original, rooted and engaging. “If you don’t take risks, that’s the riskiest thing of all,” believes Roy Kapur. Mehta, director of films like Shahid (2013) and Aligarh (2015), believes in disruption. “The industry isn’t dying; it’s waiting to be disrupted… The future lies in betting on raw talent, bold storytelling and directors who can take a script and direct the hell out of it.”

Though the worst is evidently not over for the industry, Bijli believes 2025 “promises to be a landmark year” with a stellar lineup of releases. This includes Housefull 5, the next instalment of the popular comedy franchise; War 2 that casts Hrithik Roshan and Jr NTR together; legal drama Jolly LLB 3; Aamir Khan’s next Sitaare Zameen Pe; and Thama that’s likely to feature Khurrana as a vampire. Saksena takes heart in the fact that the audience is open to different genres. “Films across genres are resonating with the audience. It’s safe to say that the theatrical business in India has a resilient foundation,” he says.