After Ebrahim Raisi’s death, why India will be watching Iran’s succession plan unfold

He fitted the bill belonging to the ultra-conservative faction, which had the upper hand in recent years, over the reformists.

But now, with his demise, all eyes will be again on Khamenei and one of the top contenders will be Mojtaba Khomeini, the supreme leader’s son. Mojtaba has maintained a low profile and lacks administrative experience, but with Raisi gone, he will be in the reckoning.

The focus on Iran in recent months has been due to the events that took place since October 7, when Hamas brutally attacked Israelis on their soil, and the Israeli response on Gaza has been perceived to be hugely disproportionate.

Many saw Hamas’ attacks had the imprimatur of Tehran, which has always vowed against the existence of Israel.

Raisi, a former Chief Justice of Iran and a longtime top prosecutor — whose role in the 1988 Iranian mass executions of political prisoners — had been criticised and had faced sanctions from the US.

Right-wing turn in Iran

Since Raisi came to power in 2021, Iran decidedly had taken a turn towards the right, a more pronounced hardline stance. There were at least five publicly visible markers where Tehran’s muscle-flexing played out in the last few years.

First, this was evident when it doubled down on its nuclear programme — much to the discomfiture of the West.

This was because then US President Donald Trump had walked out of the P-5+1 deal with Iran on its nuclear programme, and even after Joe Biden assumed office as US President, the pact was in tatters. Iran’s hawkish stance was seen to be justified within its hardline establishment, since the US was seen to have walked back, denting Washington’s credibility.

Second, after February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, Iran maintained its anti-US and anti-West approach, and decided to support Russia. The NATO enlargement argument was amplified by the Iranian leadership as a threat to Iran as well.

Third, in the later half of 2022, when Iran witnessed protests by young women over covering their heads — triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in September that year — the Raisi regime responded with a brutal crackdown.

This was seen as a major challenge towards the human rights of the Iranian citizens, who were seeking to challenge the status quo in terms of their personal freedoms — in the first large-scale protests led by the young women since the 1979 Revolution.

Fourth, Iran’s response after the war in Gaza, and the Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria which killed a top Iranian military officer, was a direct attack on Israel in April this year — which were countered by Israel with the help of the US and some of its partners in the region.

Fifth, its active support to some of the regional groups, often referred to as the 3Hs — Hezbollah, Houthis and the Hamas — is seen to have impacted the peace and stability in the region. While Hezbollah has kept Israel busy on the northern border, the Houthis attacks on the ships passing through the Red Sea had disrupted the shipping sea routes for maritime trade.

The Saudi-Iran rapprochement since last year — brokered through China and others in the region did not bear fruits, and the normalisation process between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been derailed due to the developments since October 7 Hamas attacks.

Overall, Raisi’s role as the head of the hardline government in Tehran was watched closely by the entire region and the international community, and India was actively engaging with him and his regime to secure its interests.

In August 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with President Raisi in Johannesburg on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit. Among other bilateral issues, both leaders had discussed the pending long-term contract on Chabahar, and gave a clear political direction to finalise and sign the Long Term Contract. Last week, the 10-year contract was signed between New Delhi and Tehran.

External Affairs minister S Jaishankar had also engaged with Iranian Foreign Amir Hossein Amirabdollahian, through meetings and phone calls, and that had been key to securing Indian interests — the latest one being the release of Indian sailors who were on board a ship that was seized by the Iranian navy.

India and Iran share a millennia-long history of interactions and the contemporary relations between the two countries are marked by high-level exchanges, commercial cooperation, connectivity paradigm and cultural and people-to-people ties.

The two countries had signed a friendship treaty on March 15, 1950, and the visit of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Iran and the signing of the Tehran Declaration in April 2001, followed by the visit of President Seyyed Mohammad Khatami and the signing of New Delhi Declaration in 2003 enhanced the India-Iran cooperation. But that was hampered by Delhi’s proximity to the US, signing of the Indo-US nuclear deal, and Iran’s nuclear programme faced sanctions.

In recent years, bilateral visit by Prime Minister Modi in 2016 and a reciprocal visit by Raisi’s predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, in 2018, had led to a joint statement, aptly titled “Civilizational Connect, Contemporary Context”.

Modi and Raisi had met for the first time on the sidelines of the SCO Heads of State Summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, in September 2022, during which both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to bilateral cooperation, especially in trade and connectivity.

But with the western sanctions on Iran continuing, India has not been able to buy oil since 2018, and managed to get a waiver on the Chabahar port citing access to Afghanistan as the key reason. Washington has publicly warned that there are potential risks of sanctions to deal with Iran, and if the US Presidential elections witness Trump’s return as the US President — the situation is expected to be much more challenging.

At this point of time, after Raisi’s departure, all eyes will be on who will be the next President, and the next supreme leader. Tehran’s top leadership now has to deliberate and come up with the succession plan, as that will hold the key to the future of the region. India will be watching and its diplomatic corps will be looking at the intense lobbying within the Iranian system for the top positions.