India coronavirus cases: While the last couple of weeks have been a period of welcome slowdown in the spread of novel coronavirus epidemic across the country, the most prolonged, consistent and significant decline in growth rates have been seen in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu.
These three states have been showing a reduction in their growth rates for two months now. The coronavirus cases in Tamil Nadu and Bihar have now been growing at less than one per cent per day, while Andhra Pradesh is just about to reach there (see chart).
Bihar has been adding fewer than 2,000 cases every day for the entire month of September, and on Tuesday it was also pushed out of the list of top ten states with maximum caseloads, having been replaced with Kerala, the fastest growing state right now.
Tamil Nadu has had the most remarkable flat-line progression of day-to-day discovery of new cases. Barring two occasions, the state has reported between 5,000 and 6,000 new cases every day since the start of August (see chart). On Tuesday, Tamil Nadu’s total confirmed cases was overtaken by Karnataka which has been in the midst of a minor surge in cases in the last two weeks.
Andhra Pradesh has also been reporting a declining number of new cases for the last several days now. Till the second week of September, the state was reporting more than 10,000 cases every day, the second highest in the country after Maharashtra, but after that there has been a steady reduction in the daily numbers, which have reached a level of about 6,000 now.
In fact, so steady has been the decline in Andhra Pradesh that the number of active cases have come down from a high of more than 1 lakh to less than 60,000 now, a fall of over 40 per cent in just three weeks. In Bihar and Tamil Nadu, the decline in active cases has not been this prominent.
At the national level, however, the active cases continue are continuing to go down. On Tuesday, about 80,000 new cases were reported from across the country, while more than 86,000 people were declared to have recovered from the disease. The total number of people having been infected with the virus has gone up to 62.25 lakh, of which 51.87 lakh, or more than 83 per cent, have recovered from the disease.
But more importantly, the active cases have come down from 10.17 lakh to 9.4 lakh in the last two weeks.
The state of maximum concern right now happens to be Kerala, the fastest growing state right now. Its numbers are growing at almost four per cent a day, when the national growth rate is barely 1.4 per cent. On Tuesday, the state once again reported more than 7,000 new cases, taking its total number of confirmed infections to well over 1.87 lakh. With that, Kerala made a re-entry into the list of top ten states with maximum caseload. The state was last seen in this list in the month of April.
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Another state which has been reporting an increasing number of cases in the last few days has been Karnataka. Its growth rate is still about 1.5 per cent per day, but the state now contributes the second highest number of cases every day, only after Maharashtra. On Tuesday, it reported more than 10,000 new cases for the first time. With that it also moved ahead of Tamil Nadu and became the state with the third highest caseload in the country with more than 5.92 lakh confirmed infections.
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