India coronavirus cases: Consistent with the trend at the national level, the states with the five highest coronavirus caseloads in the country have also been showing a welcome decline in the number of active cases for the last few days.
The fall in the active cases has been most noticeable in Andhra Pradesh, where it has dropped by almost 30 per cent in the last two weeks. Andhra Pradesh, which was consistently reporting more than 10,000 new cases every day till September 10, has been slowing down. The new detections have come down to less than 8,000 now, while the recoveries have been in excess of 10,000 for the last few days.
The state’s daily growth rate has dropped to half of what it was at the start of the month, from more than 2.5 per cent to 1.25 per cent now.
In Maharashtra, the active cases have declined by almost ten per cent in the last one week, from more than 3 lakh to less than 2.75 lakh now. In Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, the declines have been slightly less, but still significant.
This is in line with what is being observed at the national level as well. For the last six days now, the recoveries have exceeded new detection of cases. This is the longest that this trend has held at the national level. The result has been that the active cases in the country have come down from 10.17 lakh on September 17 to 9.66 lakh now. Never before since the start of the pandemic has there been such consistent decline in the active cases.
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Part of the reason for this lies in a slight reduction in the number of tests being carried out in the last one week. The current average of daily tests in the last seven days is the lowest since the start of the month, though not by a very big amount. In the last one week, an average of 9.81 lakh samples were tested every day. About ten days ago, this average was 10.94 lakh.
The daily detection of new cases has now remained in the 90,000s for more than two weeks now. It was on September 5 that the more than 90,000 cases were discovered for the first time. It has fluctuated between 75,000 and 98,000 after that.
The recoveries, in the meanwhile, have shown a sharp rise in the last one week, even crossing the one-lakh mark on Monday. The recoveries exceeding the new detections is considered a very healthy sign, particularly if remains like that for a prolonged period. That can be an indication that the peak could be nearby, though at this stage, it would still be too early to say that. Especially so, since the experience of Delhi has shown that such trends, even if they hold on for over a month, are not irreversible, and can change any time.
As of now, several states, most notably Andhra Pradesh, have been consistently reporting higher number of recoveries compared to new detection of cases. That is what is leading to the decline in active cases.
On Wednesday, a little more than 86,500 new cases were detected across the country, while the over 87,300 people were declared to have recovered from the disease. So far, 57.32 lakh people in India have tested positive for the disease, out of which 46.74, or nearly 82 per cent, have recovered. The death count is now touching 91,500, with more than 1,000 deaths being reported every day.
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