Old ties, new Kathmandu: What India now needs to negotiate with Nepal

While many tried to draw parallels between the political situation in Nepal and Bangladesh after the youth-led protests, they were different on one major account: in Nepal, the mainstream political parties made sure elections took place within six months of the fall of the KP Sharma Oli government.

RSP and India

New Delhi has been used to dealing with the traditional, long-term actors and partners in Nepal’s politics, who took turns forming the government.

But, under Shah, the median age of Nepal’s parliament has dropped. According to reports, almost 38 per cent of Nepal’s lawmakers are younger than 40, a direct outcome of the Gen Z movement.

Shah — a first-time MP — is the Prime Minister and is challenging the norms from the beginning.

On the diplomatic front, he has declared he will not meet officials and ministers below his rank, and thus will only meet heads of states and governments. He has also said he will not undertake any foreign trip in the first one year, as he wants to focus on the domestic governance agenda.

As a result, he has met foreign ambassadors in groups, including the Indian ambassador in Kathmandu. He did not meet the visiting US ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, who also wears the hat of South and Central Asian envoy of the US.

Since he was not meeting any senior official one-on-one, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri — who was supposed to travel to Nepal last month — did not travel to Kathmandu.

If Misri would have met Shah, he would have extended an invitation on behalf of PM Narendra Modi to visit India. But since Shah has put a self-imposed ban on foreign travel, that invitation did not materialise.

India has traditionally been the first overseas stop for Nepal’s Prime Ministers. The visit usually happens quite early in their term.

Since the establishment from both sides felt a diplomatic deadlock setting in, they decided to unlock it with a visit by Lamichhane — the second-most powerful political leader in Nepal. Lamichhane was invited by the BJP for a political party-level engagement, to unlock the diplomatic doors.

PM Modi met him in that context and conveyed that Nepal is India’s “priority partner” and that New Delhi is looking forward to collaborating with the new government to take the bilateral relationship to “greater heights”.

While External Affairs minister S Jaishankar also met Lamichhane, what stood out was his meeting with Home minister Amit Shah. Normally, Shah doesn’t meet foreign leaders and envoys.

Nepal’s Foreign minister, Shishir Khanal, also lands today.

Balen Shah’s ‘encroachment’ remark

Lamichhane’s visit takes place days after PM Shah said that Nepal had “encroached” on Indian territories, and sought involvement of China and the United Kingdom to address the long-standing dispute.

Even as the visit was ongoing, India on Tuesday categorically rejected any role for third parties to resolve its boundary row with Nepal.

Lamichhane’s post, after meeting PM Modi, displayed his political maturity. Without mentioning anything on the border dispute, he said that it was a great delight to engage in “a productive hour-long conversation” with Modi.

“I share your vision for a future where Nepal and India transcend past constraints to embrace a new era of development diplomacy. By focusing on shared civilization bonds, digital corridors, and seamless connectivity, we can truly build a partnership defined by progress and mutual trust. RSP looks forward to translating these possibilities into reality for people of Nepal and India—for our shared prosperity,” Lamichhane wrote.

This demonstrates the path of “development diplomacy” that the new Nepal government is focussed on where “digital corridors” via the UPI and other payment mechanisms to “seamless connectivity” via road, rail and air routes will be strengthened.

Big brother vs elder brother

The diplomatic challenge in dealing with the new Nepal is that Delhi is seen by some sections as a ‘bully’.

The political actions and statements from India in 2015 alienated a vast section of the Nepalese population. This was when the Nepalese Constitution was being drafted, and India criticised it for not giving enough rights to Madhesis, who share community links on the Indian side of the border. There was also an unofficial, deeply unpopular months-long blockade of the India-Nepal border in Bihar.

India, on its part, has sought to project itself as a benevolent “elder brother”, as then External Affairs minister Sushma Swaraj had once described, instead of “big brother”, an epithet used for bullying behaviour.

Delhi feels that the ties are too strong to be overlooked. South Block says that India remains Nepal’s largest trade partner, about 80 lakh Nepalese citizens live and work in India, and around 6 lakh Indians live in Nepal. Indians account for about 30 per cent of foreign tourists in Nepal. The bilateral remittance flow is estimated at about US$ 3 billion (Nepal to India) and $ 1 billion (India to Nepal).

The China factor

There is also a geopolitical contest for influence playing out in Kathmandu.

The Himalayan country finds itself sandwiched between the two powers, India and China, and Nepalese political leadership has in the past sought to use the China card with India. The US too is active and has been interested in being part of the landscape there.

Delhi is watching how the new Kathmandu navigates Beijing’s moves, which is trying to play a more influential role in Nepal’s domestic affairs. In fact, the former Chinese ambassador to Nepal is currently the head of the border division in the Chinese Foreign ministry.

Shah needs to stabilise Nepal’s economy, undertake reforms, crack down on corruption, and build infrastructure in the country. India has agreed to step up its cooperation in all these areas, and India’s development and economic aid must remain open.

Delhi’s position on the politics and future of Nepal has to remain nuanced, so that Beijing doesn’t get an opportunity to fan the suspicion of India being a bully or a big brother. India should remain an elder brother, or better still, an equal partner.