Bucking the national trend, Congress-led United Democratic Front is all set to sweep Kerala. Out of 20 seats, the UDF is leading with comfortable margin in 19 seats. In 2014, UDF had bagged 12 seats and CPI (M)-led LDF eight seats.
So far, BJP candidates could not lead in any of the constituencies. Some of the CPI (M) seats are set to collapse after remaining Left ramparts for several decades.
Going by the present trend, UDF has gained from a massive support from the minority segments, particularly the Muslim community, which have been worried about BJP coming to power again at the Centre. There is 50,000 -plus lead for UDF candidates in constituencies where minorities have considerable say.
The candidature of Congress president Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad also has created a pro-Congress ripple in other constituencies.
The young women entry at Sabarimala, facilitated by the CPI (M) Government following a Supreme Court order, has also led to the setback of the ruling coalition, which is so far leading only in one constituency.
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BJP had led violent agitations against the government decision to escort young women to Sabarimala, but Congress-led UDF is poised to reap electoral divided. In Pathanamthitta constituency, ground zero of Sabarimala agitations and which has been in the top of BJP’s poll agenda, Congress candidate is steadily leading with good margin. Going by a voting pattern in other constituencies also, it seems Left stand on Sabarimala had impacted the voting behaviour of Hindu electorate.
CPI (M) has suffered a major setback in north Kerala constituencies, which have its traditional strongholds. However, the recent political killings particularly of a few Muslim youths from Congress and Indian Union Muslim League seem to have antagonized the Muslim voters in North Kerala, which had stood with CPI (M) in the past.
In the high ranges of Idukki and similar farmer belts, which had tilted to CPI (M) in 2014, Congress has made a major comeback with huge margin of votes.