The BJP’s showing on Tuesday mirrors its 2008 performance — the first time it formed a government in Karnataka. In both elections, the party banked on winning big in Mumbai, Coastal and Central Karnataka. While the Congress took advantage of a fractured BJP in 2013 (then-rebel B S Yeddyurappa’s KJP is marked in red) to sweep the state, the JD(S), since 2008, has managed to consolidate its support among farmers and the powerful Vokkaliga community in south Karnataka.
Over 10 years, victory margins in Karnataka have come down as the three-way contest between the BJP, JD(S) and Congress has intensified. In 2018, the JD(S) in south Karnataka won with the biggest victory margins, while the Congress came a close second to the BJP in the rest of Karnataka. The victory margins perhaps explain why the Congress this time won a higher vote-share — 1.8 % more than the BJP — but was still stuck at 78 seats compared to the BJP’s 104.
How the rise and fall of Sensex mirrored the BJP’s tally
Looking for political stability and an indication of who might come to power after the Lok Sabha election of 2019, the markets moved in line with the BJP’s seats tally as counting progressed in Karnataka during the day.
So, at 9.15 am, the markets opened flat, as the trends suggested a hung Karnataka Assembly. However, as this situation changed in favour of the BJP, and it took a clear lead over the Congress, the markets started rising sharply.
By 9.27 am, the Sensex had risen by over 250 points over Monday’s closing. The rally continued, and the Sensex rose over 300 points as the BJP crossed the 100 mark in leads and wins, touching the day’s high of 437 points around 10.15 am. At this time, it seemed very likely that the BJP would be able to get a majority on its own.
Soon, however, as the BJP’s gains slowed, and it started to appear that the party may not, after all, be able to form a government on its own, the Sensex tempered its gains to around 120 points. This was around 1.15 pm. At the end of the trading day, as the BJP’s tally stabilised around 104, and the Congress-JD(S) made its bid for power, the Sensex closed at 35,543.9, 12 points, below Monday’s closing of 35,556.7. (Sandeep Singh)