Pune | Updated: August 9, 2020 1:37:37 pm
India Coronavirus Cases: For the last two weeks, the growth in active cases of novel Coronavirus in the country has been dropping at a fast rate. This happens when the recoveries, and deaths, rise at a rapid pace. Since deaths form only a small part, just about two per cent of all the confirmed cases, the decline in growth rate of active cases can primarily be attributed to the rise in recoveries.
While the total number of infections in the country is now more than 20.88 lakh, only about 6.19 lakh of these are currently sick. The rest have recovered, while a small number, about 2 per cent, have died.
While new infections are rising at a steady pace, the growth in the total number of infected cases has been on the decline again for the last ten days. And the growth of active cases is declining even faster.
At 3.03 per cent per day, the current growth rate of total confirmed cases is already at an all-time low. The growth rate of active cases has fallen to 1.31 per cent (see graph below).
Due to the recoveries, the active cases usually always grows at a slower rate than the total confirmed cases. But around July 20, for a brief period, active cases had been growing faster than total confirmed cases. However, the decline after that has been swift.
The growth rate of active cases shows a greater volatility than that of total confirmed cases. And that is because the number of recoveries is usually very erratic. Though the normal recovery time is understood to be 14 days, many patients are taking a longer time to recover, while several others are declared recovered much before that. Also, there is a greater irregularity in reporting of recoveries as compared to case numbers. Like death numbers, recoveries are also bunched together from several days.
The recoveries now form 68.32 per cent of all the confirmed cases, while 2.04 per cent infected people have died. It means that the active cases, as a proportion of total confirmed cases, has fallen below 30 per cent for the first time.
However, there is nothing remarkable about the declining proportion of active cases. As the epidemic prolongs, the active cases, as a proportion of total confirmed cases, would progressively drop. It would get to zero by the time epidemic comes to an end.
But during the duration of the epidemic, the slower the active cases grow, the lesser is the burden on health infrastructure and medical professionals. Also, since active patients are the only ones who transmit the disease further to others, lesser number of active cases would mean the disease would spread at a slower pace.
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For the second consecutive day on Friday, India added more than 60,000 new cases. Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh contributed over 10,000 cases each, while Tamil Nadu and Karnataka discovered around 6,000 cases each. 993 deaths were reported on Friday, the highest so far, taking the total number of people who have died due to the disease to over 42,500.
Top ten states with maximum caseload:
|STATE||TOTAL POSITIVE||NEW CASES||TOTAL RECOVERIES||DEATHS
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