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India coronavirus numbers explained: Despite the high recovery rate, most people still falling sick

India Coronavirus Cases Numbers: By the time the epidemic comes to an end, more than 99 per cent people would have recovered, as the death rate is expected to fall to less than one per cent.

Written by Amitabh Sinha , Edited by Explained Desk | Pune | Updated: August 15, 2020 1:37:51 pm
coronavirus, coronavirus news, covid 19, india covid 19 cases, corona news, coronavirus cases in india, coronavirus india update, coronavirus cases today update, coronavirus cases, delhi corona news, delhi coronavirus news, gujarat coronavirus, west bengal coronavirus, up coronavirus news, maharashtra coronavirus, mumbai coronavirusRapid antigen tests being conducted at NMMC medical centre in Kukshet gaon in Mumbai. (Express photo by Amit Chakravarty)

India Coronavirus Cases: While the recovery rate of novel Coronavirus cases in India has now crossed 70 per cent, the number of people who are recovering on a daily basis is still tailing the new infections being detected by a significant amount. It means that more people continue to fall sick everyday than are recovering.

As on Tuesday, 70.38 per cent of 23.29 lakh people who have so far been infected in India have recovered from the disease. Around 27.64 per cent of the people are still sick, while the remaining 1.98 per cent have died.

There is nothing special about the recovery rate increasing steadily. By the time the epidemic comes to an end, more than 99 per cent people would have recovered, as the death rate is expected to fall to less than one per cent. In the meanwhile, however, the daily numbers of new cases and recoveries can give us an indication of how soon that stage is likely to be reached.

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If the daily recoveries start to outnumber the new cases being detected, and this trend holds on for at least two weeks, then it could be a signal that a decline in the spread of the disease was nearby. This is because such a situation would lead to a reduction in active cases everyday. This stage has been achieved only in Delhi right now, and even here the decline is not happening consistently. While on most occasions since the start of July, the number of daily recoveries in Delhi has been greater than new cases, there have been several days, particularly this month, when this trend is reversed. Still, Delhi now has the highest recovery rate in the country, at almost 90 per cent.

Read | UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam biggest contributors to India’s daily numbers

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At the national level, never has the number of recoveries on a day been higher than the new cases, though there have been periods when the gap between these two numbers has been quite narrow. In the last three days for example, the new cases have outnumbered daily recoveries by 5,000 to 7,000, which is significantly lower than the gap that was being witnessed a few days ago. But there is a great deal of randomness in these numbers, as can be expected, and except for the fact that daily recoveries usually lag behind the new cases by a period of 14 days, there is no fixed trend observable.

Also read | Covid-19 vaccine tracker, August 12: When will the Russian vaccine be available?

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Also, a higher recovery rate is no guarantee against a fresh wave of infections.

After a drop on Monday, possibly because of lower number of tests conducted over the weekend, the number of new cases in the country on Tuesday crossed the 60,000 figure once again. It has remained over that level for the entire last week now.

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Top ten states with maximum caseload

STATE TOTAL POSITIVE NEW CASES TOTAL RECOVERIES DEATHS

 

Maharashtra 535,601 11,088 368,435 18,306
Tamil Nadu 308,649 5,834 250,680 5,159
Andhra Pradesh 244,549 9,024 154,749 2,203
Karnataka 188,611 6,257 105,599 3,406
Delhi 147,391 1,257 132,384 4,139
Uttar Pradesh 131,763 5,041 76,724 2,120
West Bengal 101,390 2,931 73,395 2,100
Bihar 86,812 4,071 57,039 465
Telangana 84,544 1,897 61,294 654
Gujarat 73,238 1,118 56,416 2,697

West Bengal became the seventh state in the country to cross the one-lakh figure for total number of infections. The state detected almost three thousand new cases on Tuesday which took the total number of people who have so far been infected to 1.01 lakh. More than 73,000 people, or over 72 per cent, have already recovered from the disease, while 2,100 have died.

Bihar is also racing towards the one lakh mark, being one of the fastest growing states right now. In fact, Bihar’s daily growth rate of cases now exceeds that of Andhra Pradesh, though it is still contributing less than half the number of cases compared to Andhra Pradesh every day. So far, almost 87,000 people in Bihar have been found to be infected. There were less than 10,000 cases at the start of July. But the death count in Bihar is one of the lowest in the country. With just 465 deaths recorded in the state, it is certainly lowest among the ten states with the highest caseload.

Also in Explained | Why Russian vaccine is a long way from being available in India, if at all

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