India coronavirus numbers explained: Kerala now growing faster than national average

An official screens Indian nationals as they deboard INS Jalashwa at Kochi Harbour, in Kochi, Sunday, May 17, 2020. (PTI Photo)

An increase of more than 300 infections of novel Coronavirus in last one week has ensured that Kerala is now growing at a rate faster than the national average. Kerala had been extremely successful in containing the spread of the disease till about the middle of this month, but a fresh wave of infections triggered by incoming travellers from within the country, and abroad, has seen the numbers go up rapidly.

In the last one week, the total number of confirmed infections in the state has gone up from 666 to 1,003. It means the current doubling time for the state (calculated on seven day compounded growth rate) is just below 12 days. The national doubling time of total infections right now is 14 days.

Wednesday once again saw over 7,000 new cases being detected across the country.

Around mid-May, Kerala’s doubling time was well over 100 days. On several days during this period, the state did not report even a single new infection. More than 90 per cent of the infected people had already recovered from the disease. And the state had seen just three deaths, the lowest case-fatality ratio among states with significant caseloads.

However, starting from the arrival of those stuck in foreign countries, and then the ease in lockdown restrictions that allowed several people to travel back to the state, there has been a steady rise in the number of new infections in Kerala.

Top ten states with maximum caseload

Assam, which has seen its infections increase from 170 to 774 in the last one week, is showing a similar trend, growing even faster than Kerala right now.

The fastest growing number, however, is not in any state. It is the number of people who are currently classified as ‘unassigned’ to any state. These are the people who have tested positive but are not being owned up by any state right now, mainly because they have been on the move, or have been infected at places other than their usual place of residence. This number is more than 4,000 right now, and growing at a very fast pace. They will eventually be assigned to one or the other state, and it will show up in their numbers. But right now, states are reluctant to own them up, for fear of inflating their numbers.

Wednesday once again saw over 7,000 new cases being detected across the country. The total number of infections in the country is now close to 1.58 lakh, about 65,000 of which have recovered from the disease.

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Delhi, which reported 792 new infections on Wednesday, its highest single-day rise so far, has now overtaken Gujarat to reclaim the number three position in the list of states with maximum caseload. Delhi now has 15,257 confirmed infections, while Gujarat, which has been growing at a very slow pace for the last two weeks, has 15,195. Gujarat, however, has many more deaths. So far, 938 people have died in the state due to the disease, while Delhi has seen 303 deaths. Tamil Nadu, which has a slightly higher caseload, has recorded only 133 deaths till now.