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India coronavirus numbers explained: New states growing at faster rate

The five states with the maximum caseload -- Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi, and Rajasthan -- account for over 70 per cent of all positive cases in India. In states like Himachal Pradesh and Assam, the new cases signal a resurgence.

Written by Amitabh Sinha , Edited by Explained Desk | Pune | Published: May 21, 2020 11:39:59 am
India Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases: India Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases: Sanitisation at a market in Lucknow (Express photo Vishal Srivastav)

While states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi continue to contribute the largest number of novel Coronavirus cases, it is the states with much smaller caseloads that are showing a faster growth rate for the last few days.

The five states with the maximum caseload — Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi, and Rajasthan — account for over 70 per cent of all positive cases in India. They also regularly contribute more than 70 per cent of new cases detected every day. However, barring Maharashtra, the other four currently have growth rates (7-day average growth) that are lower than the national average. Maharashtra was also growing at a lower rate till two days ago, but more than 2,000 new cases every day for the last three days has ensured that its rate is now slightly higher than the national average.

India Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases: The total number of confirmed positive cases in India are more than 1.12 lakh now, of which about 43,000 have recovered from the disease.

On the other hand, Bihar and Odisha, which have much lesser caseloads – Bihar has just over 1,600 now, while Odisha has slightly more than 1,100 – have grown at pretty fast rate in the last one ten days. That is because of detection of positive cases amongst a large number of workers returning to their homes from their workplaces in other states. These new cases – even though significantly lower than those reported by Maharashtra or Gujarat every day – have resulted in higher growth rates due to the lower base.

States like Himachal Pradesh and Assam, which have even smaller caseloads, are also in the midst of a similar trend. A more important thing in these states, however, is that the new cases signal a resurgence. Nearly all the earlier infected persons in these states had recovered, and there were no new cases for a long time.

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Top ten states with maximum caseload

State Total Cases New Cases Deaths
Maharashtra 39,297 2,161 1,390
Tamil Nadu 13,191 743 87
Gujarat 12,539 398 749
Delhi 11,088 11,088 166
Rajasthan 5,902 170 147
Madhya Pradesh 5,735 270 267
Uttar Pradesh 5,175 249 127
West Bengal 3,101 142 253
Andhra Pradesh 2,442 68 50
Punjab 2,005 3 38

But in the last week, both these states have reported several new cases. All the 41 infected persons had recovered in Himachal Pradesh, but in the last ten days there have been 69 fresh cases, taking its total to 110. Similarly, almost each of the 43 positive cases in Assam had recovered by the start of this month, but a fresh infections have been detected and now the state has a total of 170 cases. Goa has discovered 43 new cases in the last one week, more than a month after its seven earlier infections had recovered and gone home.

A slightly fewer number of new cases were detected on Wednesday as compared to the previous day, but it is still likely to be in excess of 5,000 once Delhi also reports its numbers for the day. The total number of confirmed positive cases in India are more than 1.12 lakh now, of which about 43,000 have recovered from the disease.

Growth Rates and Doubling Time

State 7-Day Growth Rate (in %) Doubling Time (in Days)
Maharashtra 6.12 11.76
Tamil Nadu 5.24 13.74
Gujarat 4.41 16.32
Andhra Pradesh 2.19 32.94
Bihar 7.75 9.29
Odisha 8.80 8.18
Assam 11.57 6.22
Kerala 3.21 22.46

Tamil Nadu, after a few days of slight decline in its daily numbers, reported 743 cases on Wednesday to take its tally past 13,000, while Maharashtra now has close to 40,000 cases on its own.

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