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India coronavirus numbers explained: The unusual consistency in Tamil Nadu Covid-19 cases

India coronavirus numbers explained: On 23 days in August, Tamil Nadu reported between 5,800 and 6,000 cases every day, leading to an almost flat-line curve for daily numbers in the month of August.

Written by Amitabh Sinha , Edited by Explained Desk | Pune | Updated: September 4, 2020 9:57:35 am
coronavirus, covid 19 news, tamil nadu coronavirus news, TN covid 19 cases, coronavirus india updateBus services resumed in Chennai on Tuesday, September 1, 2020. (Express Photo: Srinivas K)

India coronavirus cases: There is an unusual consistency in the daily number of new cases of novel coronavirus infections reported by Tamil Nadu for the last one month.

On 23 days in August, the state reported between 5,800 and 6,000 cases every day, leading to an almost flat-line curve for daily numbers in the month of August (see graph below).

coronavirus, covid 19 news, tamil nadu coronavirus news, TN covid 19 cases, coronavirus india update Tamil Nadu’s Covid-19 count in August

Other states reporting comparable numbers, like Uttar Pradesh or Karnataka or Bihar showed much greater fluctuations in their daily numbers. So did the country as whole, which reported between 50,000 and 80,000 new cases a day during August.

coronavirus, covid 19 news, tamil nadu coronavirus news, TN covid 19 cases, coronavirus india update Daily new cases in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka in August

This kind of consistency in daily discovery of new cases was not seen even in Tamil Nadu in the previous months. One of the reasons could be a similar consistency in the number of tests being carried out. The other reason could be that the laboratories in the state have the ability to process only that many tests every day. The daily testing numbers have remained more or less constant in Tamil Nadu during the month of August, though not with the same kind of regularity that is seen in the number of positive cases. Read this story in Tamil

Similar trends were observed in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in the month of May, when these states had also been reporting numbers that fell in very narrow ranges for a prolonged period. Compared to many other states, these three still have much lesser fluctuations in their daily numbers, but it is no longer what it was in the month of May.

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coronavirus, covid 19 news, tamil nadu coronavirus news, TN covid 19 cases, coronavirus india update Daily Covid-19 rise in India.

The daily fluctuations, while being a function of the number of tests being carried out, are also a result of an inherent randomness in finding positive cases. The fluctuations would be lesser where tests are targeted only at high-risk groups, and more if people to be tested are being selected randomly.

Also read | Why over 1,000 daily deaths could be the new normal

coronavirus, covid 19 news, tamil nadu coronavirus news, TN covid 19 cases, coronavirus india update Top 10 states with maximum Covid-19 caseload.

After showing a drop on Monday, most probably because of the usual decline in the number of tests on Sunday, the daily number of new cases jumped up again on Tuesday. More than 78,000 new cases were discovered throughout the country on Tuesday, in line with what was being detected for five days before Monday’s dip. The death count has crossed 66,000 now.

Don’t miss from Explained | Covid-19 vaccine tracker, September 2: Oxford begins stage-3 trials in the US

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