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Wednesday, July 08, 2020

India coronavirus numbers explained: In Gujarat, signs of a slowdown

India Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases Numbers: For the entire month of May, the state reported between 300 and 400 cases every day. The figure moved out of this bracket on only four days in the full month.

Written by Amitabh Sinha , Edited by Explained Desk | Pune | Published: June 7, 2020 1:00:54 pm
Some rickshaw drivers in Gujarat have been ferrying three or four passengers in their vehicles. (Express photo/Javed Raja)

India Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases: While there has been a slowdown in the novel Coronavirus cases in Maharashtra in the last three weeks, the most remarkable slowdown so far seems to be that in Gujarat. Once growing at more than 20 per cent, around the middle of April, Gujarat has seen a continuous decline in daily growth rate after that and is currently one of the slowest growing states in the country.

Gujarat had crossed 5,000 cases on May 1, and now has 19,617. Delhi and Tamil Nadu both had fewer cases than Gujarat on May 1, and both have overtaken it now. Delhi moved from 3,738 cases to 27,654 now, while Tamil Nadu increased from 2,526 to 30,152 during this period.

More than 10,000 new infections were reported from across the country on Saturday, while the death figure increased by nearly 300.

Gujarat now is growing at 2.6 per cent every day (7-day compounded daily growth rate), far lower than the national rate of 4.33, and has a doubling time of more than 27 days, which again is much better than the national doubling time of 16.61 days. Behind the extraordinary slowdown in Gujarat has been a surprising consistency in the number of new cases it reported every day.

For the entire month of May, the state reported between 300 and 400 cases every day. The figure moved out of this bracket on only four days in the full month. This month, so far, the state has moved into a new bracket, which is between 400 and 500. Only once in this month, has Gujarat’s number of new cases moved out of this bracket.

To a lesser extent, the trend in Gujarat is visible in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh as well.

A bigger concern in Gujarat, however, has been its death figures, and there doesn’t seem to be any slowdown there. The state has been reporting between 20 to 30 deaths every day, and till now has recorded a total of 1,219 deaths, more than any other state except Maharashtra. Of this 994, or 82 per cent, have happened just in the city of Ahmedabad. No other city has such a high proportion of deaths of its state, though Chennai does come close, with 78 per cent of Tamil Nadu’s deaths.

Gujarat also happens to have one of the highest case fatality ratio in the country.

Top ten states with maximum caseload:

STATE TOTAL POSITIVE NEW CASES TOTAL RECOVERIES DEATHS

 

Maharashtra 82,968 2,739 37,390 2,969
Tamil Nadu 30,152 1,458 16,395 251
Delhi 27,654 1,320 10,664 761
Gujarat 19,617 498 13,324 1,219
Rajasthan 10,224 253 7,388 231
Uttar Pradesh 10,103 370 5,439 245
Madhya Pradesh 9,228 232 6,108 399
West Bengal 7,738 435 3,119 383
Karnataka 5,231 378 1,968 61
Bihar 4,831 233 2,298 29

More than 10,000 new infections were reported from across the country on Saturday, while the death figure increased by nearly 300.

The states which are growing at a fast rate right now include Haryana, Assam, Tripura and Goa, the last one seeing a jump of 71 cases on Saturday to take its total to 267.

West Bengal has also picked up pace in the last few days.

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