WTC final race: What India needs to do to qualify for The Oval showdown

Among their opponents, New Zealand have India at home followed by four Tests against Australia away, before a two-Test home series against Sri Lanka.

South Africa have no more away Tests, as Australia, Bangladesh and England will come visiting for a three-, two- and three-match Test series from October to January. Bangladesh are fourth with 58.33%, ahead of India, who are fifth with 48.15%.

What do India need to do?

For India, the challenge is significant, with crucial series against New Zealand and Australia still to come. Their qualification hopes will depend on putting together a strong run of results while hoping that the teams above them drop points.

India have nine Tests remaining – two in Sri Lanka, two in New Zealand and five at home against Australia. The basic requirement is clear: they need a strong finish, probably close to a clean sweep. They have won four, lost four and drawn one of their nine Tests so far.

Winning all nine remaining Tests would take India to 74.07%. Seven wins and two draws would take them to 66.67%. Neither figure guarantees qualification because the final standings will also depend on results involving the other teams.

The schedule offers India no easy stretch. They first face Sri Lanka away, then New Zealand away, before the five-Test home series against Australia. The New Zealand series is especially important because it is an away tour against a higher-ranked team.

What are Bangladesh’s chances?

Bangladesh’s fourth-place position makes them a genuine contender, although their 58.33% comes from only four Tests. They have two wins, one defeat and one draw, placing them below the top three.

Their problem is the upcoming schedule. Bangladesh have two Tests away against Australia, starting on Thursday, and two away against South Africa in November. Those matches give them opportunities to improve their PCT, but also carry a significant risk of losing ground.

Which teams are in danger of falling away?

Sri Lanka, England, West Indies and Pakistan are currently outside the main qualification battle. Sri Lanka’s 41.67% keeps them below India, while England, West Indies and Pakistan are considerably further back in the table.

These sides are not mathematically out of contention, but they would need a strong run of results and favourable outcomes elsewhere to keep their final qualification chances alive. India are better placed than the bottom four because they have nine Tests left and can directly take points away from New Zealand and Australia.

Which matches could decide the finals race?

The remainder of the cycle promises some mouth-watering battles between teams in the top half of the table. Australia’s upcoming three-Test series against South Africa in October is one such clash: either team can strengthen its position while simultaneously denying points to a direct rival. New Zealand’s meetings with India and Australia are similarly important.

The five-Test home series against Australia offers India their best opportunity to gain points. But the Shubman Gill-led side need to get to that series with their qualification hopes still intact; a poor result in Sri Lanka or New Zealand would make an already difficult equation even more demanding.

India cannot simply target a particular number and assume qualification. Because the WTC table is decided by PCT, they also need rivals to drop points. Their best route is therefore twofold: maximise their wins, particularly in the direct contests against New Zealand and Australia, while hoping the teams above them take points off one another.