Why further increasing average life expectancy for humans will be difficult

During the 20th century, life expectancy soared dramatically primarily due to innovations in public health and medicine — between 1920 and 2020, the average human life span doubled. But there are limitations in going beyond these advancements.

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During the 20th Century, life expectancy rose dramatically. File image

3 min readNew DelhiOct 11, 2024 11:59 AM IST First published on: Oct 11, 2024 at 03:00 AM IST

After decades of rising life expectancy among humans — owing to medical and technological advancements — the increases seem to be slowing down, according to a new study. If the average life expectancy has to extend dramatically (say from 80 to 100), radical new medicines which can slow ageing are required, instead of improved treatments for common killers such as heart attacks and cancer, the study said.

The analysis, ‘Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century’, was published in the journal Nature Aging on Monday.

S Jay Olshansky, a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago and lead author of the study, told The New York Times, “We’re basically suggesting that as long as we live now is about as long as we’re going to live”.

How was the study carried out?

Olshansky and his team analysed data on life expectancy at birth collected between 1990 and 2019 from some of the regions where people usually live the longest. These include Australia, France, Italy, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. Researchers also delved into national statistics from the United States, although the country’s life expectancy is comparatively lower, according to a report by The NYT.

What were the findings of the study?

During the 20th century, life expectancy soared dramatically primarily due to innovations in public health and medicine — between 1920 and 2020, the average human life span doubled.

The period of radical life extension prompted some scientists to extrapolate the trend and claim that “most people born after 2000 would survive to 100 years old,” according to a report by The Guardian.

According to the new study, however, this is unlikely to happen. It found that on average, life expectancy in the longest-living regions rose only 6.5 years between 1990 and 2019. Olshansky and his team said girls born in recent years in the regions have only a 5.3% chance of reaching 100 years old, while boys have a 1.8% chance, according to The Guardian’s report.

This means that although modern medicine has helped many people live till their 70s, 80s, and even 90s, the average life expectancy is difficult to push further.

Olshansky told The NYT that even if deaths from common diseases or accidents were eliminated, people would die of aging itself. “We still have declining functions of internal organs and organ systems that make it virtually impossible for these bodies to live a whole lot longer than they do now,” he said.

The only way average life expectancy can touch 100 is if scientists can somehow slow down aging. Notably, several drugs are currently being tested on animals such as monkeys and mice for increasing life span. For instance, a study published in September found that metformin, an inexpensive diabetes drug, slows ageing in male monkeys.