The CCP’s 20th National Congress beginning in Beijing on October 16 is a very important moment in China’s politics, with implications for the world at large. From the developments in the run-up to the Congress, it appears very likely that Xi Jinping will be approved for a third term as general secretary. Reconfirmation as president will only happen in March at the National People’s Congress.
Former leader Deng Xiaoping had left the legacy that CCP general secretaries would step down after serving two five-year terms. Former General Secretaries Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao adhered to this roadmap. Xi Jinping is flouting this unwritten rule, and has the control over the party to achieve a third term.
And why does Xi desire a third term?
Since taking over as general secretary in 2012, Xi Jinping has started two very important reforms.
First, he is attempting to reform China’s economy so that it moves from being a manufacturing economy or the “factory of the world” to an innovation-based, thought-led economy. This is still a work in progress, and Xi needs more time to complete the job.
Second, Xi has begun changing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to make it a modern, war-fighting machine. This reform too, is a work in progress.
How has China done over the past decade?
China has continued to grow, albeit at slower rates per annum. It is the second largest economy in the world, and hopes to push the United States off the number 1 position. However, stresses and strains in its economy need to be ironed out; Xi has begun reforms, which, however, require time to be completed.
China has been flexing its muscle on the world stage. In its competition with the United States, China needs to clearly show other nations that it is the big power or hegemon in its backyard, which is Asia.
Overall, the jury is still out on the issue of China’s performance under Xi. This is why he desires to complete the work he has begun before he passes on the baton of general secretary of the CCP.
Xi’s era marks a break from Deng’s. What are the standout features of Xi’s “new era”?
Far more important than changing the unwritten two-term rule for general secretaries is the fact that Xi has undone Deng’s decentralisation of decision-making in both economics and politics.
Deng’s approach of decentralising economics from the control of the Planning Commission in Beijing allowed individual farmers and industries to decide on what they could produce, in what quantities, and then sell it in the marketplace. This decentralisation led to the “economic miracle of China”, and its GDP grew at an average of 10 per cent per year over a 40-year period.
Xi is recentralising both economic and political decision-making. In a sense this is moving China back towards the Mao Zedong era, although it is now at an entirely different level of economic development.
Everything in China today appears to be assessed and weighed from a national security perspective. The rise of entrepreneurs like Jack Ma was seen as a challenge to the leadership of the CCP — hence, he and others had to be cut to size. The result, however, is that China’s rate of growth has slowed considerably. The recentralisation of decision-making may not be good for China — neither in economics nor in politics.
How did Xi build control over the Party?
Xi has become the absolute leader in the CCP today by systematically removing any potential rivals, including among his supporters. His massive anti-corruption campaign was an important instrument to achieve this.
The first and most significant rival to be eliminated was Bo Xilai — and many others have been removed methodically and systematically. China’s system is unforgiving and no-holds-barred — the Chinese communists are firm believers in accumulating and using power in their domestic and internecine politics.
Simultaneously, Xi has brought his own people into powerful positions both in the Party and in the military.
The handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and economic slowdown might have been expected to give rise to discontent in China’s leadership. What is Xi’s support base in the Party?
The handling of the pandemic and resulting economic slowdown are indeed causing great difficulty for ordinary people in China. However, over the past 10 years, Xi and his henchmen have systematically increased their control over the people, including through the use of advanced technologies. The threat of regime change plays constantly on the minds of communist leaders. Repression and surveillance of China’s people has increased manifold under Xi. It is important to remember that ensuring continued Communist Party rule over China is the shared desire of all Chinese communists.
How does Xi see himself in Chinese history?
It is clear that Xi Jinping believes he is a man of history — the chosen one to lead communist China to its historical destiny of a great and powerful country, second to none in the international system. This is what Xi’s “China Dream” is about, and he is willing to take massive risks to achieve his objectives — something that previous general secretaries were not willing to do. In Xi’s vision, the “end of history” is the realisation of his China Dream — of China once again becoming the Middle Kingdom to which all others pay obeisance.
To be equated with Mao and Deng in the Chinese communist pantheon, Xi will be compelled to unify Taiwan with the mainland. The threat to Taiwan is rising with each passing day.
Xi believes he needs more time as China’s top leader to achieve the transformation of his country and realisation of the China Dream. China’s aggressive international behaviour will continue. Geopolitics over the next three to four decades will be characterised by the competition between China and the US. All other nations will have to adjust to this reality.
What will five more years of Xi Jinping bring for India?
India is a large, populous nation. But the way India is structured is the antithesis of the Chinese way. India is an open, transparent, democratic nation based on the rule of law. China is the exact opposite.
The fundamental values of India and China are completely different from each other. The interests of each nation will increasingly be dictated by their basic values. Hence, Indian interests will be in conflict with Chinese interests. This is already playing out.
This is also the reason why Xi is wary of India and its progress. Unfortunately, India-China tensions are set to increase. India can rise to the challenge posed by China through strategic patience and by rapidly growing its economy over a period of time.
Gautam Bambawale is a former Indian Ambassador to China, Pakistan and Bhutan. Currently, he is Distinguished Professor, Symbiosis International University, Pune.
Xi, 69, is widely expected to be confirmed on Sunday to a third five-year leadership term as party general secretary. (AP Photo)
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