Two weeks into war in West Asia, the 5 big takeaways from widening conflict

Israel, meanwhile, has escalated its conflict with Lebanon, targeting its capital Beirut.

And India, in all this, has been caught in a diplomatic dilemma.

Here are the five big takeaways from the events of the last 14 days.

1. This is not World War III, but…

The geographical spread and intensity of the war is much greater than what happened last summer.

The US and Israel’s airstrikes on Iran swiftly wiped out its top leadership, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But Iran, rather than folding, raised the stakes.

Its ballistic missiles and Shahed drones have hit as many as 11 countries — Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Iraq, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Cyprus. These strikes have targeted Western bases and troops, as well as energy and civilian infrastructure.

The drone strike on a British airbase in Cyprus, meanwhile, has raised questions about the UK’s presence on the island and left European countries on edge.

About 20 countries are now said to be directly or indirectly involved in the war, quietly supplying arms, ammunition and intelligence. These include European powers such as France, Germany, Italy and Russia.

For this to be World War III, however, China would need to step in directly. That has not happened and is not likely to, considering the tone of the Chinese statements on the issue.

Still, this regional war has had global consequences — something the Donald Trump administration did not foresee.

2. Iran is not collapsing

The war right now is a test of staying power. Who can continue to remain engaged militarily and psychologically?

American officials have privately admitted to being surprised at Iran’s staying power, despite the US and Israel’s domination over the Iranian airspace. The US has, after all, hit more than 5,000 targets in Iran, causing massive damage.

But Iran has not collapsed. Khamenei may be dead but the structures of the State are far too entrenched to simply vanish.

Iran had also been preparing for such an eventuality, especially since June last year when US B-2 bombers struck three of its nuclear facilities — Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

Supreme leader Khamenei had asked every top official, cleric and leader to name up to four successors in case of a war. So, even if the top four are taken out, in each of the verticals, the system doesn’t collapse.

And, the entire military apparatus has been decentralised into a “mosaic defence doctrine”. This essentially means that there are 31 units protecting Tehran and the 30 other provinces. They have complete independent command-and-control structures, with their commanders being empowered with the authority and a blueprint on their role and jurisdiction on what and how to hit their targets.

And, on top of it, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the clergy have banded together for survival, going against Khamenei’s own diktat against hereditary rule. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been appointed as the new Supreme leader.

Trump may call Mojtaba Khamenei a “lightweight”, but his elevation shows the defiance of the Iranian regime against the American President.

3. Bibi, the beneficiary

With Iran’s Supreme leader gone after 37 years, and Iran’s capabilities being steadily degraded, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has found himself as one of the biggest beneficiaries of this war — certainly more so than Trump.

This is a far cry from the situation he had found himself in after the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas that killed 1,195 people.

But Netanyahu responded with a brutal, years-long siege of the Gaza Strip that decimated the territory, killed over 73,000 people, and caused widespread starvation among its 2.3 million residents.

In these years, his government has taken out major hostile figures — Supreme Leader Khamenei, Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah.

That’s not to mention key Iranian officials — Abdolrahim Mousavi; the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces; Mohammad Pakpour, the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC; Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Defense Council; Aziz Nasirzadeh, Minister of Defence; and Mohammad Shirazi, Head of the Military Office of the Commander-in-Chief (the Supreme Leader).

Netanyahu can claim victory for eliminating his foes in Iran as well as Tehran’s proxies as he attempts to put himself in a stronger position for domestic elections.

4. India’s strategic dilemma

India has been in a precarious position since the US and Israel began the war by attacking Iran on February 28.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel, barely 40 hours before the attacks began, has sparked criticism from domestic political quarters that New Delhi is in Tel Aviv’s corner.

India also has not condemned the US and Israel’s attacks, but did so for Iran’s retaliation against Gulf countries, where American assets and personnel are stationed.

These countries are India’s key strategic and trade partners. About one crore Indians live and work in West Asia. About 60% of India’s energy imports also come from this region (roughly 50% oil and 70% natural gas).

Tehran sees the Gulf nations as a fair game, saying civilian facilities are targeted because they host American and Israeli security and spy organisations.

But Iran has also been a historical partner for India. About 9,000 Indians, most of them students, live there.  India has not expressed condolences over the Supreme Leader’s death at the highest levels, but Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri signed the condolence book at the Iranian embassy.

The war has come to India’s doorstep, as the Iranian warship IRIS Dena was torpedoed in international waters near Sri Lanka by the US Navy, and Kochi has had to host other Iranian sailors seeking refuge.

So, New Delhi’s strategic dilemma is visible. PM Modi spoke to eight countries in the region at the highest level, and External Affairs Minister Jaishankar spoke to his Iranian counterpart four times in two weeks. However, a belated course correction has taken place, with Modi speaking to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

This is similar to India’s initial response after the Oct 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas where the PM had expressed support for Israel and then later, spoke to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement reiterating India’s support for the two-state solution.

India will be keen that the war ends soon, with the LPG shortage triggering panic among the people.

5. Is there an off-ramp?

President Trump has been saying for the last few days that there is “nothing left” to target, and they have almost won the war, giving an impression that the US might call it off soon.

But the US has also deployed additional warships and troops to the region.

The US President’s decision, ultimately, may be shaped by the impact on the markets and the global economy amid the rise in energy prices.

Trump has also not set out any specific objectives for the war. The goalposts have been shifting over the last two weeks — from regime change, to destroying the nuclear programme, and dismantling the missile and defence capabilities.

There is a strong case that the American carpet-bombing on towns like Bushehr have damaged the Iranian military-industrial complex.

What the bombing has not touched so far is enriched uranium, the fissile material needed to make nuclear weapons.

Trump said on Saturday that the US military had heavily bombed targets on the Kharg island, also threatening to hit the island’s oil infrastructure. This is essentially to put pressure on Iran. Earlier, the US and Israel had been careful about Kharg Island, but has indicated that capturing the island was potentially on the table. The Pentagon had dispatched the Japan-based amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli to the region along with its complement of some 2,500 Marines.

But Trump can easily claim that he has been able to achieve other objectives: killing the Supreme Leader and the top brass, and significantly degrading Iran’s military and industrial capabilities.

And Iran, which has lost the battle of the air, can say that it has won the battle of the sea — the Strait of Hormuz.

Each side can claim victory if it calls off the war. The question is, will they?